Autocratically led Belarus since 1994 Alexander Lukashenko finally commented on Tuesday about the armed rebellion started by the mercenary company Wagner over the weekend, in the resolution of which he said he helped.
The result was a rare straightforward and detailed description of the course of Saturday’s dramatic events. Lukashenka’s speech revealed an extraordinary amount of information about the conversations he had with the Russian president Vladimir Putin and Wagner director Yevgeny Prigozhin with.
Lukashenko revealed that he heard about the rebellion that started in Russia from the security service of Belarus on Saturday morning. At the same time, Lukashenko was informed that Putin wanted to talk with him.
According to Lukashenko, the presidents talked a little after ten in the morning on Saturday. During the call, it dawned on Lukashenko that Putin was planning to kill Prigozhin.
– I understood that a cruel decision had been made – to kill. I suggested to Putin that he should not rush, Lukashenko said.
Lukashenko says that he tried to convince Putin that there is another option that would help avoid serious clashes.
– According to my understanding, the most dangerous thing in the situation was not what was happening in Russia, but what the situation could have become and what consequences it would have, Lukashenko said on Tuesday.
– I told Putin: Don’t do it [tapa Prigožinia]because at that point negotiations are no longer an issue, he continued.
Lukashenko said he explained to Putin that the Wagner soldiers are experienced and battle-hardened soldiers who were ready to fight alongside each other until the end.
– If Putin had adopted harsh measures, thousands of civilians and Russian soldiers would have died.
– I suggested to Putin that he should wait with the decisions. He replied: Listen to me Sasha, it doesn’t matter. He [Prigožin] doesn’t answer the phone, and he doesn’t want to talk to anyone.
Sasha is a popular nickname in Russia for people named Alexander. The fact that Putin calls Lukashenko Sasha speaks of the close relationship between the presidents.
Lukashenko said that he finally managed to convince Putin that waiting would be the best option.
– Bad peace is always a better option than war. Don’t worry, I’ll try to contact Prigozhin, Lukashenko says he told Putin.
“Prigozhin behaved like a half-mad man on the phone”
Lukashenko says that he reached Don in Rostov at eleven o’clock in the countries of Prigozhin, who took over the military base and the airport.
– The Wagner leaders who returned from Ukraine were exhausted that so many soldiers had fallen in the war. Prigozhin said that certain people in the Russian military leadership want to strangle Wagner alive.
Prigozhin has long been criticized by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov About the deliberate sabotage of the Wagner forces. On Friday evening, Prigozhin claimed that Russia has attacked Wagner’s camps with missiles.
Lukashenko said that Prigozhin had behaved like a half-madman on the phone and shouted abuse for more than half an hour. According to Lukashenko, Prigozhin may not have even realized that his life was threatened.
– There were ten times more curse words than ordinary words. He said he wanted to talk to Putin and demanded that Shoigu and Gerasimov be handed over to him. I told him it wouldn’t happen, especially in this situation.
Lukashenko said he told Prigozhin that they would be crushed like bugs halfway to Moscow if they continued their rebellion.
At the end of negotiations that continued late into the evening, Prigozhin agreed to stop the advance of his troops towards Moscow.
Lukashenko will try to benefit from Wagner’s move to Belarus
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that the power game between Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin is not over yet.
According to ISW, Lukashenka is trying to get room for maneuver with the help of the Wagner forces moving to Belarus in order to respond to the Kremlin’s efforts to annex Belarus to Russia.
The think tank points out that Lukashenko appears to be a political savant, if his story about his peace mediation between Moscow and Wagner is true.
ISW estimates that Lukashenka is trying to get the Wagner forces moving to Belarus under his strict control and to use the forces to reduce the structural dependence of the Belarusian armed forces on the Russian armed forces.
According to the think tank, Putin has probably concluded that he cannot directly eliminate Prigozhin without making the Wagner leader a martyr. The think tank estimates that Putin is trying to destroy Prigozhin’s reputation among the Wagner forces and the Russians.
According to ISW, the short-term and long-term effects of the power game may be beneficial for Ukraine.