– In the first days after the start of the special operation, I had the feeling of complete apocalypse. It was as if we weren’t living, we were in a horror movie, not knowing when it would end, when the end credits would come, a Muscovite Natalia tells.
Russia’s war in Ukraine continues for the sixth month. interviewed four Muscovites about what they now think about the war.
In March, Russia enacted a strict law on fake news – smearing the Russian armed forces can result in up to 15 years in prison.
Any information that deviates from the official one counts as defamation, including calling the war a war and telling about Ukrainian civilian casualties. The political atmosphere in the country has tightened even more.
Therefore, we will not use the Muscovites interviewed for this article by their real names.
Everyday life continues after the initial panic has passed
In the early days of the war, Natalja did not sleep and constantly read the news.
On the streets he was met by people who also had red eyes – they too had not slept and were constantly scrolling through their phones trying to understand what was happening, but still did not understand.
– There were a lot of questions and few answers and the feeling that you are very small and the world is crumbling around you, says Natalja.
Even extraordinary circumstances meet to become normal.
– Time has passed and life goes on. People live, everyday problems have not disappeared, ordinary life, says Natalja now.
On the other hand, the situation still feels incomprehensible and the future uncertain.
The brutal war in Ukraine may seem far away in everyday life in Moscow. Boys from the poorest regions of Russia most often end up at the front.
The waves of economic struggle triggered by the war are reaching the big city, such as the departure of Western companies from the Russian market.
Incomes have decreased and many have lost their jobs, Natalja says.
– Many no longer plan anything because it is useless. I know that someone benefits from this situation, a situation of big changes and crises.
The departure of western companies hits the economy
Middle aged Denis says that his attitude to the so-called special operation in Ukraine has not changed.
– I don’t understand what we are doing there, says Denis.
Denis’ attitude has been partly influenced by the fact that the war has caused problems in his work with network connections. Equipment suppliers Nokia and Ericsson have stopped their operations in Russia and the Chinese Huawei has also stopped deliveries. New base stations are hardly built anymore and old ones are not modernized, says Denis.
For twentysomethings For Dasha the situation has meant job loss.
– I worked as a promoter for a European brand. Because it left Russia and canceled deliveries, I was fired, Daša says.
Trips abroad and gigs of European bands in Russia are now also on hold.
– In principle, life goes on, but prices have risen considerably and it is almost impossible to find a job, Daša says.
Working as a gym trainer Boris again, he has not experienced major shocks in his own economy. Some of his clients have lost some of their income.
– Food prices have risen, but they already rose before the special operation, so there has been no big shock, says Boris.
He believes that the situation will give many Russian industries a boost. In the long term, it will be positive for the country’s economy, Boris thinks.
He says that he is already used to the “special operation”. He no longer follows the news constantly, but only once a week.
The fear of arguments reduces the conversation
The Muscovites we interviewed followed the events on social media, especially on the channels of the Telegram messaging service.
None of them actively watched television, the state’s main media. Citizens who watch television have generally been more inclined to trust the Kremlin’s message.
Denis says he only watches football on TV. In his opinion, there is propaganda in both Russian and Western news.
Natalja has drawn attention to the fact that recently her acquaintances have discussed the situation less than before. People are wary of arguments.
– There is too much of a chance that opinions will differ. Don’t want to argue, it won’t help. Whatever opinion you or your interlocutor has, it does not affect the situation, says Natalja.
The Russians don’t want to be the only ones to blame
Most Muscovites interviewed by are quite critical of the so-called special operation, but they also do not name Russia alone as the culprit.
Natalja says that the governments of all the states involved in the conflict are to blame. He grieves for Ukrainians who are under war or have had to flee the country. He says he also feels sorry for the Russians, who are now considered enemies and fascists, even though they did not decide on the special operation.
Natalja even mourns the Europeans, who now feel the rising prices in their economy.
– It’s a pity for people who don’t decide anything, but always have to suffer from the governments’ decisions, says Natalja.
– I think both Ukraine and us are to blame. What to do? I don’t know how this could be solved, Denis thinks.
He also says that Western countries also pursue their own interests in Ukraine in order to weaken Russia.
Boris, on the other hand, believes that the West is prolonging the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine. This is an accusation that official Russia has also often thrown at Western countries.
War distorts survey responses
But can opinion polls be trusted when wrong expressions of opinion can even lead to prison?
St. Petersburg political researcher Ilya Matveyev says that in general there is a reason to be suspicious of the results of opinion polls in the conditions of authoritarianism.
– The pollster calls a person and asks if you support the war or not. If he says he doesn’t support, will the black car take him to the dungeon? Who would tell the truth in such a situation? Matveyev says.
– There have been some studies based on in-depth interviews and conversations with people in Russia. They show that the majority of people have no enthusiasm for this war.
Rather, it is noticeable an effort to adapt to the prevailing conditions, when a large part of the population does not feel that they can influence politics.
Professor of Russian Studies at Aarhus University in Denmark Jeremy Morris says that opinion polls are too blunt a tool in such a sensitive situation.
War distorts answers: people give the answers they assume are expected of them.
However, the lines are getting tighter
Typically, wars are considered to lead to the so-called Rally around the flag effect: people line up behind their country and its leaders, i.e. gather around the flag, as it were.
Jeremy Morris feels that the term does not describe the situation in Russia well. Rushing under the flag reflects more populist and nationalist reactions in the United States when it entered the Iraq war in 2003.
– Russia is not a democratic government, there is widespread dissatisfaction and mistrust of the state and especially the political leadership, says Morris.
On the other hand, Russians are aware that the war has been widely condemned in the West, sanctions have been imposed against the country and foreign companies are withdrawing from the country.
Morris himself has called the general reaction of the Russians defensive consolidation, defensive unification. Russians are united by the feeling that the world is judging them.
– Maybe I don’t like what my state is doing. But it’s clear that the world is kind of against me, so I react defensively, Professor Morris describes the way of thinking.
Professor: Political gestures do not help Ukraine
According to Professor Morris, Western countries should think about how they can influence the Russian population.
If the intention is to get the Russians to oppose the president Vladimir Putin administration, Western countries have not succeeded. Some of the measures used alienate Russians from the West’s message, drive them into Putin’s arms, Morris analyzed.
The professor criticizes, among other things, Finland’s decision to stop passenger train service between Helsinki and St. Petersburg.
Morris thinks it’s a political stunt that serves no purpose. Now in Finland, discussions have started about tourist visas for Russians.
– Many Russians oppose the war and even more would oppose it if they did not get the impression that they are considered collectively guilty and responsible, says Jeremy Morris.
In his opinion, the Western countries should also recognize their own hypocrisy: the brutalities of Putin’s regime in the Syrian war, for example, and the assassinations of opponents did not ring alarm bells, and the Western countries continued to cooperate with Russia in complete peace.
– If we are serious about punishing Russia, we should accelerate the transition away from Russian natural gas and oil, Professor Morris says.
You can discuss the topic until Sunday at 11 p.m.