I don’t hate it like the past, but I can’t forget the past

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On November 13, a Korea-US-Japan summit was held at a hotel in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. ⓒ Yonhap News What kind of existence is Japan to Koreans in 2022? To ask this question, we must first look at international relations in 2022. It is very likely that later historians will record this year as a great turning point. Things that pointed to ‘changing the status quo’ continued incessantly. In February, Russia invaded Ukraine. In August, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. In October, Chinese President Xi Jinping achieved a third consecutive term. In the US midterm elections in November, Biden’s Democratic Party defended. In Taiwan’s local elections, the ruling party (Democratic Party), which tried to distance itself from China, suffered a crushing defeat. As above, the core axis of the international events that have continued this year are ‘US and China’. So, in order to know which way each event is leading the world, we need to put in the keyword ‘US-China strategic competition’ and examine it. For Koreans living in an environment where they are easily exposed to geopolitical crises, the international situation is an issue related to survival. So, back to the first question. Is Japan, the country right next to us, a friend or a threat to us now? How should Korea get along with Japan in a reality where the two pivots, the United States and China, are becoming stronger and stronger? There is a voice that the two countries should ride the same boat to keep China in check. On the other hand, there are counterarguments that there is a line that cannot be crossed with Japan, which does not apologize for its past history. What kind of country is Japan in the perception of Koreans, and how does it affect Korea-Japan relations? What is the evaluation of the difference in perception by generation and party support and each political circle’s response to Japan? Why should we get along well with Japan, and why? Even so, are there any principles that cannot be undermined, where is the rebellion of public opinion, and so on. Various questions follow. This is why investigated ‘Koreans’ perception of Japan in 2022′. conducted a web survey by designing 248 questions in collaboration with Hankook Research, an institution specializing in public opinion polls. The design and analysis of this web survey were jointly conducted by Hankook Research Research Fellow Jung Han-ul (Ph.D. in Political Science), Deputy Head of Public Opinion Headquarters Lee Dong-han, and Researcher Lee So-yeon. As of the end of November 2022, the United States has the highest emotional temperature among Koreans’ neighboring countries (United States, China, North Korea, and Japan), ranked second in ’emotional temperature’ (see Figure 1). An emotional temperature of 0 is very negative, 50 is neither negative nor positive, and 100 is very positive. America is 62. Next is Japan at 36.2, China at 27.3 and North Korea at 24.3. Compared to the United States, Japan, China, and North Korea are figures that can be called ‘battles in the lower leagues’. However, when comparing time series, quite noticeable changes are detected. In the second half of 2018, the emotional temperature for North Korea recorded 48.7, the highest in the last four years. The trend at the time that led to the series of inter-Korean summits promoted by the Moon Jae-in administration and the North Korea-US summit was reflected. Until the second half of 2020, the emotional temperature toward Japan was the lowest among the four countries (US, China, North Korea, and Japan). In response to the South Korean Supreme Court’s ruling on compensation for victims of forced labor under Japanese colonial rule, Japan took ‘trade retaliation’ by regulating exports of semiconductor-related materials. Then, Korean citizens launched a ‘No Japan (boycott of Japanese products)’ movement. It’s from 2019. At that time, the emotional temperature for Japan was 21. It was the lowest in the past four years. Since then, it has been on an upward trend. Does this mean that we have entered a mood of reconciliation with Japan? In order to confirm this, I asked for a more specific perception of Japan with several contrasting images.

shows the responses to three questions such as trust-distrust, friend-enemy, and responsibility-irresponsibility. Positive responses were low. Trust (10.6%), friends (10.9%), and responsibility (13.1%) are all in the 10% range. Negative ratings are close to or more than half. However, ‘Neither’ accounted for more than 30% in all three items. This is a point worth paying attention to. The background of this ‘innocentness’ can be inferred through
. We asked about the capabilities of each country (Korea, the United States, China, and Japan) in each area. They were asked to rate whether they were at the highest, upper middle, middle, lower middle, or lowest in the world. The items were △popular culture △military power △international competitiveness in the field of economy △welfare △politics and democracy. Among these, we selected the best and middle-highest answers. Our own evaluation of ‘Korean popular culture’ (68.8%) is comparable to that of the United States (71.3%). This is thanks to the propaganda of K-pop and K-content. It overwhelms Japan (32.5%). Regarding military power (44.5% of Korea, 42.2% of Japan) and welfare (34.4% of Korea, 36.5% of Japan), South Korea and Japan evaluated that they were ahead or behind. International competitiveness in the economic field (Korea 43.1%, Japan 51.8%) and politics and democracy (Korea 16.2%, Japan 21.1%) are seen as lacking compared to Japan. However, the difference was not large. “Korea will rise and Japan will decline” What is another reason why Japan is neither good nor bad? This is because they believe that even if there is a gap between Korea and Japan, they can catch up. Koreans are negative about Japan’s future prospects. Even now, I do not think of Japan as the world’s greatest power in terms of military and economy (refer to
). Moreover, they are pessimistic about the situation in Japan 10 years from now (refer to
). We asked what level of national level they think each country currently has. 31.2% of respondents said that Korea was an advanced country, and 54.2% of middle-income countries. 51.1% of respondents said Japan was an advanced country, and 38.7% said that it was a middle-income country. However, the response that Korea will become an advanced country in 10 years surpasses Japan. Public opinion predicts the rise of Korea and the decline of Japan. After 10 years, Korea predicted that it would be 45.5% of developed countries and 41.1% of middle-income countries. After 10 years, Japan predicted 34.7% of developed countries and 45.1% of middle-income countries. Also, many respondents said that ‘Korea will soon surpass Japan’s national power’ (63.3%) or ‘Japan’s national power is in decline’ (67.7%) (see
). Can we simply dismiss the results of this investigation as ‘Gukppong’ or hopeful perceptions? In fact, according to various economic and military power indicators recently announced by the international community, the gap between Korea and Japan is not large. Global Firepower (GFP), a U.S. military power rating agency, ranked Japan 5th and South Korea 6th out of 142 countries in the 2022 Military Power Index. Last year, Japan (the Japan Economic Research Center, a research institute affiliated with the Nihon Keizai Shimbun) also predicted that by 2027, Korea’s per capita gross domestic product (nominal GDP) would overtake Japan’s. For that reason, there are voices that Korea can have confidence in resetting Korea-Japan relations. The foundation has been laid. Nonetheless, as shown in
, the perceived threat to Japan remains. ‘Japan is seeking hegemony in the world and Asia’ (57.4%) and ‘Japan is a threat’ (43.5%) are the same. This is quite different from the evaluation of current economic and military capabilities and the evaluation of future capabilities, and it even seems contradictory. Understanding this contradiction is the core of Korea-Japan relations. The gist of it is the past. Most Koreans believe that Japan’s apology for its past is not enough. That is why more apology from Japan is needed (87.8%) (see
). At the same time, they are interested in Korea-Japan relations (80.4%) and think that Korea-Japan relations need to be improved (79.2%) (see
). It is a judgment based on the reality at hand. The impact on the economy of both Korea and Japan is large (71.5%), it affects civilian exchanges between Korea and Japan (51.5%), and China’s influence must be checked together (45.4%), so it is necessary to suppress the military threat from North Korea and In order to maintain peace (39.3%), it is necessary to improve Korea-Japan relations (multiple responses possible, see
). However, there are some things that need to be prioritized before improving these relationships. ‘Japan’s apology for the past (77.5%)’ was ranked as the unrivaled first place (refer to
). Koreans’ demands for Korea-Japan relations are complex. Even before the historical issues between the two countries are resolved, 71.9% said that efforts should be made to improve Korea-Japan relations. ‘ (refer to
). It’s not an easy problem. It is the role of politics to solve this problem. Both Korea and Japan have largely failed to unravel this subtlety. A typical example is the December 28 ‘comfort women’ agreement conducted by the Park Geun-hye and Abe governments in 2015. The Moon Jae-in government, which appeared after the ‘candlelight revolution’, was negative to this agreement. Conflicts led to Japan’s trade retaliation during the Moon Jae-in and Abe administrations, South Korea’s boycott and “GSOMIA” controversy. The Yoon Seok-yeol administration, which emphasizes ‘value diplomacy’ and ‘liberal democracy’, is different from the Moon Jae-in administration and is making efforts to improve Korea-Japan relations. The first trilateral joint training between South Korea, the US and Japan was held in five years. South Korea emphasized that it was a response to North Korea’s provocations, but the United States and Japan said it was part of their “Indo-Pacific strategy.” In effect, it is a cooperation between South Korea, the US and Japan targeting China. “Still, an apology must be received.” Lee Jae-myung, the representative of the Democratic Party of Korea (Democratic Party), criticized the trilateral joint training between South Korea, the US and Japan as “pro-Japanese defense”. Refuting this, Jeong Jin-seok, chairman of the People’s Power Hypertrophy Committee, raised controversy over the ‘colonial view’ by saying, “Joseon has rotted inside, and Japan has never waged a war with the Joseon Dynasty.” In this survey, we asked for an evaluation of each. Regarding the recent Korea-US-Japan joint training, 51.6% agreed and 25.9% opposed (refer to
). 28.3% agreed and 66.3% disagreed with the statement, ‘Joseon collapsed due to internal causes, not because of Japanese aggression (refer to Figure 8)’. It is a ‘hot potato’ how to respond after the Supreme Court’s ruling on compensation for victims of forced labor under the Japanese colonial rule. According to the results of the survey, ‘the Korean Supreme Court ruling should be followed’ (40.8%) and ‘Japanese companies acknowledge responsibility, but the Korean and Japanese governments or companies create foundations to pay back instead’ (30.8%). The second is a kind of compromise, but here too there is a premise. It is ‘Japan’s acknowledgment of responsibility’. Regarding this issue, most Koreans regard ‘Japan’s apology for its past history’ as important. Public opinion is adamant about Japan’s past. This serves as a kind of principle in Korea-Japan relations. At the same time, a realist theory emerges that relations need to be improved. For economic, military and security reasons. As such, it is not easy to ‘handle well’ the issue of Korea-Japan relations. It is a difficult topic to solve at once like ‘speed war’. As we have seen so far, the ‘Japanese issue’ is difficult for Koreans. This is because Korea-Japan relations are basically mutual. You can’t keep your hands on it either. International relations on and around the Korean Peninsula are fluctuating. Let’s go back to the first question. What kind of existence is Japan to us? It seems that the way to coexist with Japan, where Koreans feel neither a friend nor a threat, can begin by properly reading the demands of these demanding voters. On November 29, in front of the Supreme Court in Seocho-dong, Seoul, a press conference was held by Grandmother Yang Geum-deok (center), a victim of forced labor in Japan. Men and women aged 18 or older Sampling frame: Korea Research Master Sample (800,000 people nationwide as of October 2022) Sampling method: Proportional sampling based on region, gender, and age Sample size: 1,000 people Sampling error: If random sampling is assumed, The maximum permissible sampling error at the 95% confidence level is ±3.1%p Survey method: Web survey (url sent via mobile phone text message and e-mail) Weighting method: Weighting by region, gender, and age (cell weighting, administered in October 2022) Response rate (cooperation rate): 6312 requests for survey, 1379 participants for survey, 1,000 survey completion (15.8% compared to request, 72.5% compared to participation)

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