LEGISLATIVE POLLS. Relative or absolute majority for Emmanuel Macron in the National Assembly? A record number of deputies for the left united in Nupes? The polling institutes give their first projections for this second round of the legislative elections.
[Mis à jour le 14 juin 2022 à 21h45] After a very close first round between the Together coalition (LREM-Horizons-MoDem-Agir) and the New Popular Ecological and Social Union in the legislative elections, all eyes are on the first projections of the number of deputies in the National Assembly. A latest survey published Tuesday, June 14, 2022 by the interactive Harris Institute gives Together in the lead. The presidential coalition would be credited with 257 to 297 deputies. Emmanuel Macron could therefore lose the absolute majority at the Bourbon Palace. To obtain it, a coalition or a party must count 289 seats. The eruption of the New People’s Ecological and Social Union in the political landscape certainly has a lot to do with it.
The left-wing coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is credited with 161 to 219 places in the hemicycle. This would make Nupes the main political force opposing the presidential majority. The latest Harris interactive poll then gives The Republicans third. LR would thus go from 100 deputies to a group of 45 to 65 parliamentarians. Finally, the National Rally could well have a group in the National Assembly if we are to believe the survey. The RN could well get 23 to 45 deputies. Let’s keep in mind that the polls are not an exact prediction of the vote. However, for the first round of these legislative elections, they were not far off.
After the results of the first round of the legislative elections, the pollsters agree that the candidates Together! could obtain the parliamentary majority on the evening of Sunday June 19. But none places the slider for the number of seats with certainty above the 289 level. governance of the country complicated.
Harris interactive’s latest projections for Challenges, released Tuesday, June 14, estimate between 257 and 297 the number of winnable seats for Together! (LREM, MoDem, Horizon, Act). The Nupes would obtain by following the largest number of deputies with between 161 and 219 places at the Bourbon Palace. A fine performance which would remain insufficient to impose cohabitation on the Head of State. Despite a sharp decline, Les Républicains would retain 45 to 65 of their seats and would become the second opposition force against the first currently. Finally, the National Rally could manage to form a parliamentary group of 23 to 45 deputies.
Ifop-Fiducial, which delivered projections on the evening of the first round, is more optimistic about the results of the presidential majority and allocates 275 to 310 seats to the deputies of Ensemble!. But it should be noted that in fact, the majority would remain narrow between the other forces of the Assembly. The Nupes could obtain 175 to 205 seats when LR would oscillate between 45 and 65 elected and finally the RN could have a group of 15 to 30 deputies. The balance of power would therefore remain unchanged.
Please note: the projections established on the evening of the first round of the legislative elections are not the result of polls. The institutes that develop them for television channels are based on the actual results of several hundred polling stations representative of the diversity of the constituencies, spread throughout France. With these starting data, mathematical models will come to give a range of the probable number of seats for each political bloc. Algorithms whose challenge is above all to anticipate the reports of votes in the 577 constituencies.
What did the last poll of voting intentions say about the 1st round of the 2022 legislative elections?
The latest survey from the Ifop institute for LCI, published Friday, June 10, gave the Nupes (26.5%) just ahead of Ensemble! (26%), when the RN collected 19% of the voting intentions, far ahead of LR (10%) and Reconquest (5.5%). A result similar to the very latest Harris Interactive and Toluna barometer for Challenges (June 8 to 10) and to the Ipsos-Sopra-Steria surveys for France Télévisions, Radio France and Le Monde, giving the two formations equal or almost, in front of the maximum RN 20%. The match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon was therefore announced and the pollsters made no mistake.
The various polls published in recent weeks gave Together! and the Nupes at the top of the voting intentions, ahead of the National Rally, this trend in the polls having been maintained throughout almost the entire campaign. The movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron have been credited with 25 to 28% of the votes in a pocket handkerchief in recent weeks, which is what the first round delivered as a balance.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections are very different from those cast for the presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power.
In the 577 constituencies in mainland France and overseas (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.