Former intelligence chief Pekka Toveri estimates that Belarus is in Russia’s pocket.
Russia demands guarantees that Ukraine will not join the military alliance NATO. There are more than 100,000 Russian soldiers near the Ukrainian border. There are also troops in Belarus.
– Russia will not leave this situation empty-handed. Quite a bit of news has been reported about how Russia has probably already managed to take more advantage of Belarus, said the director of the European Center for Hybrid Competence. Jukka Savolainen ‘s morning interview on Thursday.
Russia has said many times that they want a new security architecture for the entire Eurasian region.
– The West has not been very effective in opposing this game in Russia, but has been asking “what is bothering you and can we help you here,” Savolainen says.
Major General evp Pekka Toveri estimates in the morning of that Belarus is in Russia’s pocket. Some of the Russian troops may remain there permanently. The comrade served as the intelligence chief of the Finnish Defense Forces until the second year.
A long game is going on
Savolainen emphasizes that something extraordinary is going on: Americans have revealed intelligence.
– I guess the Americans have managed to surprise the Russians with this narrative, that they know what kind of tricks are planned.
This may have watered down some of Russia’s planned operations. According to Savolainen, it can be said that the open disclosure of intelligence has become part of the American strategy.
In any case, in Savolainen’s words, Russia has a “long game going on, this is just one episode”.
– The goal is at some point a situation where probably at least Crimea will remain in Russia. International agreements lead to a situation where it is agreed, Savolainen estimates.