Iran-backed Huthi rebels have claimed several of the attacks in the Red Sea recently and are now threatening to fire on any ships sailing towards Israeli ports.
– This could escalate into a major regional war, says Jan Hallenberg, associate senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy.
In the wake of the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen have begun attacking international ships in the Red Sea. It is about both warships and merchant ships that are bombarded with heavy artillery.
The violent attacks are carried out in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.
– The war is ongoing and scores of Palestinians have been killed, then the Huthis want to make an effort to make it difficult for Israel, says Jan Hallenberg, associate senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy.
A spokesperson for the Huthi movement says in a statement that the attacks will continue as long as Gaza is not provided with humanitarian aid, such as food and medicine.
“All ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, will be a target for our armed forces,” said the spokesman, according to Reuters.
The US Defense Headquarters has announced that several ships have been attacked and that they have also returned fire.
– If American soldiers are killed, the consequences could be a regional war in the worst case if both Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis attack the USA and Israel at the same time, says Hallenberg.
However, he believes that it is not very likely at the moment.
– Definitely less than 50 percent anyway. Maybe a 20-30 percent chance, he says.
Norwegian ship hit by robot
On Monday evening, a Norwegian ship was hit by a robot off the coast of Yemen. A fire broke out but no one was injured in the incident.
According to Anders Hermansson, CEO of Swedish Shipping, takes a very serious view of what is now happening in the area.
– These sailors and shipping companies are completely innocent and have nothing to do with the conflict. What is happening is very serious, he says.
Hermansson says that several Swedish-flagged ships regularly pass the route through the Red Sea and further into Europe through the Suez Canal. However, the problems in the region are not new.
– There have been pirate attacks there in the past and states that have illegally seized ships. Then you have been able to protect yourself by driving faster, putting barbed wire on the boats or using water cannons. Now it is a different actor we see with a different mode where you often shoot at the boats. Then it’s mainly about gathering information about what’s going on, he says.
A possible stoppage in the 19.3-mile shortcut to and from the Mediterranean could have major consequences for world trade.
– It would affect the entire world’s logistics flow. It would mean delays for Swedish companies and consumers and even some production disruptions if it were to last long enough, says Hermansson.
An alternative for the merchant ships would be to take a detour around the whole of Africa, which is estimated to take an extra 7–10 days.