Did they spread the word? The element of language resembles and merges. At Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, sovereignist candidate for the presidential election, the response has been prepared since the health crisis: “What saddens me is that there was fear of Covid-19, lies, manipulation, attacks to freedoms in our country, and now there is a certain instrumentalization of the Ukrainian drama so that the French look away from the results of Emmanuel Macron, from the proposals of the candidates”, he asserts.
On the side of Eric Zemmour, in companionship with the breeders in the aisles of the Salon de l’agriculture on Friday, we take up the assertion of the president of Debout la France. According to the far-right candidate, the war in Ukraine “diverts attention from major issues for France in the next five years”. The position of the two candidates illustrates the upheaval of the electoral campaign caused by the war in Ukraine, which disrupts the first round of the presidential election. The costume of head of state on the shoulders, Emmanuel Macron takes off in the polls when Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Marine Le Pen are criticized for their complacency with regard to the Moscow regime and when Valérie Pécresse struggles to position herself between national cohesion and militant opposition. But France is far from being the only European country which sees its supreme electoral appointment being jostled by foreign affairs. Overview.
- In Hungary, a legislative campaign in the unknown
The scene takes place in the heart of Budapest, the Hungarian capital, at the foot of an imposing Austro-Hungarian building on the banks of the Danube, headquarters of the International Investment Bank (IIB), majority owned by Russia. “Putin, Orban, get the hell out!” shout the thousands of demonstrators. The war in Ukraine is approaching seven days of clashes and the opposition candidates to Viktor Orban’s government are coming together to castigate the diplomatic and economic rapprochement that the Prime Minister has operated for a decade with the Kremlin. Its main and only opponent, Péter Márki-Zay, is there to criticize the Russophile tropism of his adversary. The independent conservative candidate had created a surprise in the fall by getting his hands on the town hall of Hódmezovásárhely, stronghold of Fidesz, the ruling party. He has since been appointed by the common platform to represent the opposition which is coming together to bring down Viktor Orban.
Since his return to power in 2010, the ultra-conservative leader has constantly extolled the merits of Putin’s authoritarian regime, going so far as to ask for autonomy for Crimea in 2014 when Moscow had just annexed the south-eastern region of Ukraine. While remaining within NATO and the European Union… A vague position that the Head of State sought to maintain throughout the European diplomatic response to the invasion of the Russian army in his home. Ukrainian neighbor. He first showed himself to be perfectly in tune with the European Union by condemning the offensive without appeal, by supporting the financial sanctions and by calling for the reception of refugees, he who has built his internal policy on the drastic fight against immigration.
“Aligning with the EU and NATO has allowed him to once again attract the attention of Europhile voters. Viktor Orban is a great strategist and will do everything to take advantage of the war in Ukraine”, notes with from L’Express Catherine Horel, historian and specialist in Central Europe. But he refused to deliver weapons to the Ukrainian people. Above all, most of the public and private media, which are under the yoke of the state, fuel a reading of the conflict close to the rhetoric of the Kremlin.
Inevitably, today, his opponents remind him of his ambiguous position towards the allies of the Central European country, while the legislative elections which must renew the Parliament will be held on April 3. “The opposition is united, but its candidate suffers from a stigma: he has no international experience, he is not a polyglot. Viktor Orban will play the international experience card against an opponent very focused on the domestic policy”, adds Catherine Horel. Despite his pro-Russian positions, the Prime Minister could take advantage of the crisis by asserting his stature as head of state. Whatever the outcome of the election, the conflict in Ukraine has revived a question that was no longer really discussed: what should Hungary do, caught between East and West?
- In Slovenia, an even more fragile Prime Minister
The general elections will take place on 24th April in Slovenia. The president, Borut Pahor announced it at the beginning of February: “After consultation with the leaders of the parliamentary groups, I will give the order to form a government to the candidate who enjoys the necessary support, ie 46 votes or more.” The controversial Prime Minister Janez Jansa displays, two years after his arrival, a growing unpopularity. An assumed admirer of Donald Trump, the 63-year-old conservative leader is accused, according to the opposition, of copying Viktor Orban’s Hungary in his authoritarian style and his anti-migrant remarks. A positioning that could even more bring down the leader at a time when the war is raging hundreds of kilometers away.
If Slovenia was among the first European countries to embark on the path of sanctions against Russia, the authoritarian inclination does not really serve the Prime Minister. His opponents do not fail to recall a certain familiarity with the tenant of the Kremlin. The war should not upset a general opinion rather hostile to Janez Jansa. Above all, it could lead to the fall of his party in parliament, which was only credited with 15% of the votes in mid-February in the polls.
- In Serbia, Vucic plays it patient like Macron
In the streets of Belgrade on Saturday, demonstrators gather to take a stand in the war that now opposes Russia to the Ukrainian people. But unlike all European capitals, the gathering is not intended to condemn the war orchestrated by Russian forces. Quite the contrary. The group of 2,000 pro-Russian far-right activists walk the sidewalks, portraits of Vladimir Putin at arm’s length. If the rally is far from being the revealer of the opinion which crosses Serbia, it testifies to the political context less than a month from the legislative and presidential elections, on April 3rd. The outgoing president, Aleksandar Vucic, has no choice but to walk a tightrope.
Leading both to Russia and to the European Union, Serbia is distinguished from its neighbors by a median position vis-à-vis Moscow since the offensive launched by Vladimir Putin ten days ago. “The country is one of the countries culturally closest to Russia”, contextualizes historian Catherine Horel. Serbia voted for the United Nations resolution condemning the military intervention while not addressing any sanction to the Kremlin regime. Faced with the international context, like Emmanuel Macron who postponed his candidacy announcement until the last days, the President is procrastinating. “I think Aleksandar Vucic is in a much more uncomfortable position than Orban. He is waiting which way the wind will turn to direct his campaign”, analyzes Catherine Horel.
For several weeks and the rise of tensions in eastern Ukraine which worried the international scene, President Aleksandar Vucic’s ties with Russia have been severely criticized by his socialist opponents. Economic circles have strongly criticized the rapprochements with the Chinese and Russian economies. These positions are now reinforced in light of the war.