BRUSSELS Hungary’s national conservative prime minister Viktor Orbán has tightened his rhetoric ahead of next week’s European Council meeting.
The meeting is scheduled to discuss, for example, the increase of humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine and the start of EU membership negotiations with Ukraine.
Orbán has praised the EU’s aid to Ukraine and demanded the presidency of the European Council Charles Michelia to remove the item related to Ukraine’s EU membership from the agenda of the summit.
Hungary’s heels have a lot of weight in EU decisions that require unanimity. These include issues related to the Union’s budget, common foreign policy and sanctions.
Delaying the processing of Sweden’s NATO membership in the Hungarian Parliament is also seen to be related to Hungary’s goals at the EU’s decision-making tables.
According to the expert, Hungary’s main goal is the release of EU funds frozen due to violations of the rule of law. It is a pot of more than 20 billion euros in total.
– Hungary has good chips and a strong negotiating position, a researcher at the German Institut für Europäische Politik research institute York Albrecht assess the meeting’s preferences.
Will the money taps open for Hungary?
There are already indications that Hungary could get some of the money it wants from the EU. An anonymous EU source familiar with the preparation of the case estimated last week for Brussels media that up to ten billion euros could be released to Hungary based on the reforms it has made.
Viktor Orbán is known in Brussels as an experienced negotiator who has often ended up supporting the EU’s common policies despite his sharp statements. At the summit in December, the situation may be different.
– His goal seems to be not only the release of funds frozen for reasons related to the rule of law, but also the creation of a new kind of confrontation in relation to Brussels and other EU countries, says the Hungarian expert of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank Andreas Bock.
According to Bock, Orbán’s policies may have support in, for example, Slovakia, where the new prime minister Robert Fico first announced that he would end arms aid to Ukraine.
Holland’s recent election winner Geert Wilders has also spoken in favor of ending arms aid.
Ukraine desperately needs help
Stalling the EU’s support would be poison for Ukraine, which desperately needs help from the West to survive another winter of war.
EU countries are currently discussing a financial support package of 50 billion euros, which would be added to the EU’s financial framework until 2027.
In addition to this, the EU plans to increase the peace fund that channels Ukraine’s arms aid by 20 billion euros.
So far, no agreement has been found between the EU countries on either project. The background is primarily the opposition of Hungary, but also of other EU countries.
– Viktor Orbán is well aware that opposition to support for Ukraine is starting to rise within the European Union, says a researcher at the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki Katalin Miklossy.
According to Miklossy, it is obvious that Hungary links decisions related to Ukraine to securing its own EU funding. However, yielding to Orbán’s demands would be risky for the EU.
– First of all, Orbán gets confirmation that his own goals can always be achieved with aggressive behavior. Second, it sends a message to other countries that blackmail always works. So you can always resort to extortion when the situation arises.
The EU has to balance
The EU will have to balance between the needs of Ukraine and Hungary in decision-making in the coming weeks. Hungary’s lukewarm attitude towards helping Ukraine and promoting the country’s EU membership puts EU leaders in front of tough choices.
– EU partners may consider an agreement with Hungary to ensure that EU aid to Ukraine continues and that the path to EU membership remains open, says Andreas Bock of the ECFR think tank.
According to Bock, however, it is uncertain whether Prime Minister Orbán is ready to help Ukraine, even if some of Hungary’s frozen funds are released.
– In any case, the EU states and the Commission should not allow extortion by releasing funds that have been withheld due to deficiencies in the rule of law, Bock continues.
Can Hungary be ignored in decision-making?
EU countries have also considered a solution where Hungary would be excluded from financing solutions related to Ukraine. In this way, Hungary would be deprived of the conditions to use its right of veto to promote its own goals.
According to researcher York Albrecht, this option should also be considered.
– This would be an indication of continued support for Ukraine. At the same time, it would send a message to Hungary that it is increasingly isolated with its own positions, says Albrecht.
According to Albrecht, member states that emphasize the rule of law could also cooperate more closely with each other. For example, a lawsuit could be brought against Hungary on the basis of Article 259 of the EU treaties.
– In a situation where Hungary repeatedly tries to block joint decisions in order to pursue its own interests, this could be timely.
The experts interviewed by agree that Hungary has become far removed from other EU countries, and that differences of opinion on key issues such as Ukraine are a challenge for the Union.
– Orbán is undermining the unity of the West and the EU’s ability to act by concluding new energy agreements with Russia, trying to limit or prevent aid to Ukraine, delaying Sweden’s accession to NATO and preventing sanctions against Russia, Andreas Bock lists.
Prime Minister Orbán angered his Western colleagues by meeting the president Vladimir Putin at an event organized by China in Beijing. According to researcher Katalin Miklossy, the meeting tells about Hungary’s balancing act between the West and the East.
– If Hungary doesn’t get money from the West, it will turn more and more emphatically to the East. This has been visible for many years. But now the issue is highlighted when the Hungarian government is short of money, says Miklossy.
Other EU countries are trying to appeal to Hungary to find a common position. Prime Minister of France Emmanuel Macron has invited Orbán to visit today, Thursday.
Bowing to the demands of Hungary, which violates EU rules, would be a risk for the EU, Miklossy warns.
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