Viktor Orbán’s Hungary is an important object of influence for Russia, because it is at the table of both NATO and the European Union.
But could Orbán’s close ties to Russia and the president to Vladimir Putin does the defense alliance pose a security threat to NATO?
According to a researcher with a Hungarian background, clear evidence of Hungary’s dependence on Russia was obtained when Putin and Orbán met in Beijing in October at Putin’s suggestion. Both leaders attended China’s Belt and Road Summit.
– Orbán’s message was that when Putin calls, he must go there. It is a rather unique statement from the leader of a NATO country, says a senior researcher András Rácz from the German DGAP research institute focusing on foreign policy.
Hungary has stopped helping Ukraine in the EU, and in NATO its attitude towards Sweden’s membership is one thing to watch.
The Turkish parliament ratified Sweden’s NATO membership on Tuesday. Ratification still lacks a president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan confirmation. Turkey has tried to use Sweden’s membership as leverage in, for example, arms deals with the United States.
Hungary’s demands on Sweden are unclear and have varied along the way. On Tuesday, Orban presented negotiations with the Swedish Prime Minister by Ulf Kristersson with.
– According to the current story, the problem is a lack of respect for Hungary, but it is difficult to negotiate, says researcher Rácz.
– Two parties have benefited from Hungary’s braking line – Turkey and Russia. If Hungary continues to brake, only Russia will benefit, András Rácz thinks.
Rácz says that a longer delay after Turkey’s ratification would at least be circumstantial evidence that Hungary is taking some sort of marching orders from Moscow.
However, yesterday, Wednesday, Orbán again assured that he supports the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership, so perhaps the request for negotiations sent to Stockholm has lapsed. The Hungarian parliament returns from recess in mid-February, but the parliament can be convened earlier.
“Hungary may be blamed more precisely”
A researcher at the British Royal United Services Institute and a former NATO officer Ed Arnold considers it possible that, within NATO, Hungary’s access to information on some issues may be restricted if it is suspected that Hungary is leaking information to Russia.
According to Arnold, this can happen especially in informal contexts.
– So far, I don’t see any signs that, for example, Hungary will be left out of certain meetings, but it may be that informal contact with Hungarians will decrease, says Arnold.
According to him, Hungary may also be monitored more closely than before because of contacts with Russia. However, Orbán’s political rhetoric does not necessarily mean that the risk of providing sensitive information to Russia will increase.
If Hungary was caught leaking information, it would be isolated, and large arms industry projects, among other things, would be at stake, Ed Arnold estimates. For example, Hungary has ordered armored vehicles from the German Rheinmetall, and that also includes a factory opened in Hungary.
Orbán’s path to understanding Russia
In any case, Viktor Orbán’s change has been startling.
In the late 1980s, he became known as an activist who, among other things, was demanding the departure of Soviet troops from Hungary. He was also the prime minister in the late 1990s when Hungary joined NATO.
The question arises why Russia’s grip on Ukraine and Orbán is now so tight.
Senior researcher András Rácz says the economy is an important factor.
– Hungary is very dependent on Russian gas and oil. And what is extraordinary is that Hungary does not seek to reduce this dependence.
“An advantage for Orbán’s inner circle”
According to Rácz, it has been suspected that there is an arrangement in place for the gas import, by which bribe money ends up in Orbán’s inner circle. In addition, the state-owned MOL energy company has made a good profit by importing Russian oil. Profits from processing and export are practically directed almost entirely to the state budget.
As the third leg of the cooperation between Hungary and Russia, a new nuclear power plant is planned for Paks, Hungary.
A loan commitment of 10 billion euros has been received from Russia for the project led by the Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom. According to Rácz, the money goes to businessmen close to Orbán, or as he says: oligarchs.
For now, the construction project is in its early stages.
Meeting with Putin a turning point
In addition to economic benefits, it has been suspected that there is something else in the background that would explain Orbán’s behavior.
During the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, Orbán was still critical of Russia, but the following year the voice on the clock changed quickly.
Orbán visited St. Petersburg in November 2009 for a meeting of then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party.
– Putin and Orbán met. Apart from Orbán, there were no other Hungarians in the room. The interpreter was Russian, András Rácz says.
After the visit to St. Petersburg, the critic of Russia turned into an understander and a sympathizer of Vladimir Putin.
– Orbán, who started his career as the most anti-Russian politician in Central Europe, changed completely.
What can be found in Putin’s safe?
One suspicion is that Putin has information with which he can put pressure on Orbán, says András Rácz.
– There are rumors of a video in which Orbán accepts a bribe from an oligarch who lived in Hungary From Semyon Mogilevich.
Mogilevich, who was wanted for financial crimes in the United States, was arrested in Moscow in 2008. It has been speculated that in order to be released, he handed over the incriminating material in his possession, among other things, about Orbán.
According to another suspicion, Russia has evidence that Orbán was a military intelligence informant in his youth during the communist regime.
But both the oligarch and whistleblower claims are rumours, and researcher András Rácz says he doesn’t know for sure what’s true and what’s not.
He also states that it is impossible to know with certainty what Hungary would do if a military confrontation broke out between NATO and Russia. However, Rácz’s assessment is that Hungary will stick to its commitments to NATO.