The health situation seems to be improving in France, the number of new cases is decreasing every day. However, how long will it take to return to normal life? Will this ever happen?
the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is the equivalent of the Scientific Council in the UK. On February 10, he published a document presenting four scenarios of the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic. In all scenarios, new variants will emerge. But it is their characteristics that matter: transmissibility, severity of infection and ability to evade immunity conferred by infection or current vaccination.
Scenario 1: the most optimistic
Under this scenario, new variants would emerge. These would have the following characteristics: transmissibility and severity of infection identical to or lower than the Omicron variant, ability to evade immunity almost zero. A possible resurgence ofepidemic would be possible atfall 2022/2023, but with a low number of cases of severe disease.
Scenario 2: a little less optimistic
According to this scenario, the new variants would have the same or lower transmissibility and severity of infection than the Omicron variant, as in scenario 1. On the other hand, they would be able to escape immunity. The epidemic would evolve by waves seasonal with more or less good years. Serious cases would mainly concern frail, elderly or immunocompromised people. A booster dose adapted to the seasonal variation could be offered to them. Populations would naturally adapt their behavior during the most severe waves to protect the most fragile. A next wave similar to that of Omicron would be possible in the fall of 2022/2023.
Scenario 3: a little more pessimistic
According to this scenario, the new variants would have a superior transmissibility to the Omicron variant and a high capacity to evade immunity. On the other hand, the severity of the infection would be identical to or less than the Omicron variant. As in scenario 2, booster doses adapted to the variants in circulation would be offered to the population, making it possible to limit the severe forms of the disease. Although the disease is not severe in most people, successive waves disrupt society. The populations adhere little to the barrier gestures.
Scenario 4: the most pessimistic
According to this scenario, the new variants would have greater transmissibility and severity of infection than the Omicron variant as well as a high capacity to evade immunity. Vaccination campaigns adapted to the variants in circulation would be essential. Even non-frail people could have severe forms of the disease. The long forms of the disease are frequent. The populations would no longer adhere to barrier gestures.
To date, it is impossible to know which of these scenarios will occur. The variant monitoring remains essential to adapt health measures.
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