The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that the La Niña phenomenon will continue for the second consecutive year until spring 2022, and will therefore continue to influence rainfall and temperatures for the next few months.
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[EN VIDÉO] 5 weather phenomena that will become more frequent due to climate change Weather hazards have always been part of our daily life. But with climate change, these once-exceptional events are tending to repeat themselves. Here are 5 weather phenomena that we will experience more often in the coming decades.
Latest model predictions weather report indicate that the phenomenon will be weak or moderate, of intensity a priori more attenuated that during thewinter last, during which La Niña had caused a significant cooling of the waters of the equatorial Pacific, before entering a “neutral phase” during the spring. The latest forecast of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimate at 90% the probability of the La Niña phenomenon between this month of December 2021 and February 2022, before entering again in a neutral phase from March.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
These are two climatic phenomena which are characterized by a anomaly temperature of part of the waters of the Pacific Ocean: La Niña occurs when the water is colder than average, conversely we speak ofEl Niño when the water is warmer than average. These thermal anomalies of the water, coupled with changes in the winds and some atmospheric pressure, have consequences on the climate of the following months mainly in America, Asia and Africa, but much less in Europe. The consequences of an El Niño or La Niña year are felt in particular on cyclonic phenomena in the Atlantic (more numerous with La Niña), the cold (more marked with La Niña), and precipitation. Due to its location in the center and east of the Pacific, the consequences of La Nina mainly concern South America.
The year 2010-2011, for example, was marked by a very strong La Niña phenomenon and its consequences had been catastrophic on part of the world: drought exceptional in the USA and in Africa, in Europe as well, even if it is not certain that the lack of water on the European continent was really linked to La Niña.
A cooling in sight for the planet?
The planet is not really going to cool down though: we can expect Earth temperatures to once again be above normal. season for many parts of the world, due to the heat imprisoned in theatmosphere by the greenhouse gas, according to the WMO. Recall that the cooling effect of the waters of La Niña is very brief, and does not call into question the overall trend of the global warming. Moreover, El Niño and La Niña are not the only phenomena that influence the global climate, other factors come into play in the climate evolution of the coming months. But its cooling effect should still be noticeable on a global scale: according to the WMO, the year 2021 will simply be one of the hottest on record, instead of being the hottest. never recorded !
Concretely, the north of South America (Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia), the northwest of the American continent (United States and Canada), the south of India, the peninsula Indochina and Australia are expected to face lower-than-normal temperatures in the coming months. Other areas will be a priori also affected by a slightly colder than normal: the Caribbean, north-west Asia, the south of the African continent, Madagascar, and Europe. Almost all other parts of the world will experience warmer than normal temperatures.
Regarding the rains, drier conditions than normal are forecast near theEcuador, in Argentina in particular, and from northern South America to Mexico. Drought could also be present in the southern states of the United States, as well as in China. Conversely, Southeast Asia and Brazil could experience heavier-than-normal rains, as could the Northwestern United States, Canada, and Australia.
The consequences of La Niña in Europe
In Europe, the consequences of La Niña are more limited, or just less well known. In some cases, La Niña can give rise to winters early and severe (agitated, windy, cold, with a persistent westerly flow over France), but this is not systematic, and it also depends on other climatic parameters. The latest seasonal forecasts so far point to the possibility of a colder-than-normal winter in Europe. But, regarding precipitation, there is nothing proven about a possible effect of La Niña this year on the European continent.
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