The second of the legislative rounds promises to be complicated for Emmanuel Macron against Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Nupes. So much so that the President of the Republic deemed it useful to speak out to ask the French to give him a majority ” solid In other words, an absolute majority. And for good reason, the stakes are high. If he were to have only a relative majority in the National Assembly on Sunday evening, his five-year term would take a completely different turn.
Without an absolute majority, without the 289 deputies needed to vote on his texts, Emmanuel Macron will be forced to find allies to push his reforms through the National Assembly. So to negotiate and make compromises, even compromises “, Regrets an adviser to the executive. With whom ? A priori with the Republicans who have already positioned themselves as the future pivotal group, the lawmakers. Christian Jacob, the president of the party, thus declared that LR will be a ” determined and useful opposition force “. Gérard Larcher’s discreet visit to the Élysée at the start of the week also reinforced the idea that possible negotiations were in preparation for the post-second round.
Limited use of the 49-3
Emmanuel Macron’s room for maneuver in the National Assembly without an absolute majority would be all the more reduced since the government could only have one limited use of the famous article 49-3 of the Constitution which makes it possible to pass the texts without submitting them to the vote of the deputies. Since 2008, it can only be used for the budget and only one bill per parliamentary session. Nothing to do with past situations, like that of Michel Rocard who had recourse to it 28 times between 1988 and 1991, when he was the head of a government without a majority.
Depending on the scores, Emmanuel Macron will also be dependent on his allies of François Bayrou’s Modem and Edouard Philippe’s Horizon, who could go from the status of auxiliary forces to that of essential auxiliaries. So far, everyone has assured their loyalty to the President of the Republic. But in a five-year term where the succession of Emmanuel Macron will be open, the affirmation of ambitions, in particular of Édouard Philippe, could complicate the situation.
What will the National Refoundation Council be used for?
In the entourage of Emmanuel Macron, there is a danger if the absolute majority is not reached: that the president is hindered to reform but also to act in the event of a crisis. And to cite the war in Ukraine or the risk of a return to the health crisis.
In this scenario, what will the National Refoundation Council, presented by Emmanuel Macron as the tool of a new method and where will all the political forces be represented? Bypassing the Assembly in the preparation of reforms? Everything will certainly depend on the result on Sunday.