MACRON. Not sure of obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, how could Emmanuel Macron govern if this scenario were to be confirmed?
Look for a legislative result near you
It is the little music that resonates with insistence in the mysteries of politics: Emmanuel Macron could find himself without an absolute majority in the National Assembly and therefore have less than 289 deputies supporting his policy. A scenario that appeared before 1er turn of the legislative elections, but whose hypothesis was reinforced after the announcement of the results, Sunday evening. Together, the coalition for the presidential majority made up of LREM, MoDem (François Bayrou), Horizons (Edouard Philippe) or even Agir (Franck Riester), would only win 255 to 295 deputies. The majority is therefore far from certain for Emmanuel Macron. With a re-election that has not aroused great enthusiasm and legislative elections that are of little interest to voters, how could the President of the Republic govern if he does not have the majority of Parliament with him? Response elements.
An alliance on the left or on the right?
If Emmanuel Macron does not win an absolute majority in the National Assembly, it will not be a first in the history of the Fifth Republic. But there is only one precedent: that of 1988 when the Socialist Party only won 275 seats in the Bourbon Palace, when François Mitterrand had just been re-elected. The then Prime Minister, Michel Rocard, then Edith Cresson and Pierre Bérégovoy had to negotiate the texts with other political groups that could tip the scales in his favour: sometimes the Communist group (25 deputies), sometimes the center union (41 deputies).
Thus, if he does not have enough deputies, Emmanuel Macron will have to instruct Elisabeth Borne to open discussions with other political groups. To activate a discussion channel, the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister could be tempted to use the lever of the upcoming reshuffle. An opening in the composition of the future government towards one or more political families with which the Together coalition (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir), in support of Emmanuel Macron, could make it possible to initiate exchanges. It remains to be seen who the Head of State and the resident of Matignon would turn to: LR, who could win 50 to 80 seats, or the various left, given between 15 and 25 in the National Assembly? Everything will depend on the number of seats that Ensemble will obtain. Discussions would then begin on each text, opening the way to an almost unprecedented political situation and which should, for sure, vitalize the democratic debate in a politically fragmented France.
A recourse to 49.3?
If certain texts fail to receive the approval of at least 289 deputies, the government will always be able to use article 49.3 of the Constitution, allowing the Prime Minister to pass a law without a vote of Parliament. At the time, Michel Rocard had then used it 28 times in three years. But today, the possibilities of using this political weapon are limited. Only budgets can be adopted without a vote, as well as a single law per parliamentary session (one session corresponds to a maximum of 120 days per year). What limit the field of action. Unless Emmanuel Macron obtains the majority?