Is it going backwards to jump better? This Saturday, February 17, the Ukrainian army was forced to withdraw its troops from the town of Avdiïvka, in the east of the country. It only took a few hours for Russia to announce “total control” of this industrial city, which had become the epicenter of the fighting since the fall.
Avdiïvka, a small town in the Donetsk oblast which once had some 30,000 inhabitants, is now reduced to a pile of stones. “In the situation where the enemy advances by walking over the corpses of its own soldiers and ten times more shells […]”, this is the only right decision,” said General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, who commanded the zone. For his part, President Volodymyr Zelensky assured, from the podium of the Munich Security Conference, that he would was a “fair” decision to “save lives.” “In order to avoid being surrounded, it was decided to withdraw to other lines,” he also declared.
The Ukrainian army must now establish a new strategy. On Saturday, near the village of Prohres, about thirty kilometers northwest of Avdiïvka, AFP journalists saw Ukrainians establishing new lines of defense with shovels and construction equipment. Withdrawing into the surrounding countryside seems, according to geopolitical analyst Louis Duclos, to be the best way to compensate for the “imbalance of resources” between the two armies. “Ukrainian soldiers will undoubtedly move towards Orlivka or Tonenke, villages that are a little further away. There, they will be able to get out of urban combat and play over greater distances, the researcher anticipates. The Russian forces will thus be more vulnerable to move forward because they will need more armored vehicles to be able to protect themselves.”
The latter already seem to be continuing their attempts to gain ground. “In the Avdiïvka area, Ukrainian soldiers repelled 14 attacks by occupiers near Lastochkyné”, a small village located less than two kilometers from the northern districts of Avdiïvka, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said this Sunday. Further south, in the Mariinka area, Russian forces “attempted 23 times to break through the defense of our troops,” he added. And Ukrainian soldiers also repelled 13 Russian “assault attempts” near the villages of Robotyné and Verbové (Zaporizhia region), one of the rare places where Kiev had regained ground during their 2023 counter-offensive which largely failed. .
Lack of ammunition and military resources
Faced with a growing lack of resources, Ukraine could hardly avoid this withdrawal in the face of Russia which, with more soldiers and ammunition, pushed its troops to obtain this conquest. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this advance clearly highlights Moscow’s air superiority: on the ground, a Ukrainian soldier operating in the Avdiïvka region claimed that 500 KAB (laser-guided) glide bombs had been launched in recent days by Russian forces . And they carried out 73 airstrikes, according to General Oleksandr Tarnavsky. A record number.
On the other hand, Ukrainian defense is hampered by delivery delays from its allies. Thus, “Russia could reproduce its successful tactics at Avdiïvka on a larger scale if the West continues to delay military assistance,” warns the ISW. A situation that the Ukrainian president wishes above all to avoid. This Saturday, Volodymyr Zelensky launched an urgent appeal to his Western allies, primarily Americans, to remedy the “artificial arms deficit” in which the country is maintained.
Congress blocking US military aid
“Deliveries of[avions de chasse] F16 take far too long and the Ukrainian Air Force lacks air-to-air missiles,” observes Gustav Gressel, expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), interviewed by West France. Furthermore, “Ukraine would need a lot more artillery ammunition.”
This lack “allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war”, deplores Volodymyr Zelensky. After a telephone conversation with his American counterpart, Joe Biden, the Ukrainian president nevertheless declared himself “happy to be able to count on [son] full support.”
The tenant of the White House, for his part, said he wanted to “fight so that they [les Ukrainiens] have the ammunition they need.” While the Democratic president called Congress’ continued blocking of $60 billion in military aid “absurd” and “unethical,” he said ” confident” in the continuation of American military aid to Kiev.
A victory more “symbolic” than strategic
Across the border, the Russian army hopes that the capture of Avdiivka will make Ukrainian bombing of the large neighboring city of Donetsk, the capital of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine for ten years, more difficult. . For Moscow, it is therefore “an important victory”, as the head of the Kremlin repeatedly repeats. Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defense, insists on the importance of taking the industrial city, “a powerful defensive node of the Ukrainian armed forces”.
Because for the Russian army, a few days before the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, the control of this city is a strong signal sent to kyiv and to the West. Also a way, as a presidential election approaches, the future winner of which is already known, to reaffirm Moscow’s superiority on the front. “It’s their winter victory,” says Louis Duclos. “But for the Russians, it’s above all a Pyrrhic victory. The Moscow army can boast of having taken Avdiïvka because it’s a battle which has been going on for months, but it is symbolic. It will have no strategic interest.”
On the other hand, if this long battle ended in victory on the Russian side, it also proved costly, both in terms of military resources and soldiers. Already, last December, a Ukrainian colonel mentioned an average of 300 to 400 Russian losses per day, while the Ukrainian general staff went up to 931 Russian daily losses in November.
“Closed in their propaganda and their desire to announce victory to their people at all costs, the Russian army released all its resources” in this battle, observes Louis Duclos. Even if it means carrying out a series of “suicide attacks”. Thus relieved of its men and its equipment, the Russian army hardly seems capable, according to Mykola Bielieskov, expert at the National Institute of Strategic Studies of Ukraine interviewed in the New York Timesto “push further west of Avdiivka quickly and turn this week’s success into a major victory.”
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