The sequence was as chilling as it is historic. In the oval office, Donald Trump launched a direct warning on Friday February 28, “either you sign an agreement, or we are going away. If we are going away, it will be played on the battlefield, and it will not be pretty to see”. Three days later, an official of the White House confirmed the suspension of American aid to Ukraine, plunging Europe into concern.
At a time when diplomatic reactions are raining, when Western chancelleries are increasing the summits, and where the European Union announces a massive reset plan, the question of the resistance capacity of Ukrainians remains whole. Expert in aeronautics and defense, Xavier Tytelman tells L’Express the reality of the Ukrainian front, where he goes regularly.
L’Express: Is Donald Trump’s strategic turnaround to the White House is likely to cause military collapse in Ukraine?
Xavier Tytelman: American aid now only represents 20 % of the equipment used in Ukraine. 25 % comes from Europe, and 50 %… from Ukraine. The rest comes from countries like Egypt, Serbia, Azerbaijan, Australia, South Korea or Jordan. According to the last announcements, the judgment decided to help American would only arise from August. So, if there are 20 % of the Ukrainian equipment that disappears by a six -month horizon, it still leaves time to prepare for it. I remind you that we are on a very long temporality. If the Russian progression follows the same speed as that observed in 2024, it will take them another three years simply to complete the conquest of the Donbass.
What state of mind have you raised among Ukrainian soldiers during your last trips on the front?
The general atmosphere is clearly not for defeatism. In the exchanges I have with the soldiers, for example on the Pokrovsk front, where I have gone four times since last August, I can say that it has been a long time since I have seen them so calm on their military situation. The last time dates back to the summer of 2023, just before their counter-offensive, when they considered, certainly, wrongly, be able to win back their territory.
Today, we only ask them for one thing: to face Russians who conquered 4000km² in 2024, barely a third of a French department. They are exhausted for very low territorial gains.
Donald Trump’s national security advisor Mike Waltz said on Wednesday, March 5, that the United States was suspending information sharing with kyiv. This is an area where American superiority will struggle to be replaced …
In intelligence, the Americans have a gigantic weight, but their help was mainly precious at the start of the war. They were the ones who warned the Ukrainians of the places where the Russians were going to attack, and how they were going to do it. It is they who allowed effective targeting against generals. But Europeans are also present, notably the Germans and the French. Let us not forget also that the Ukrainians have effective intelligence networks, especially in occupied areas, or even in Belarus, where part of the army is opposed to the regime and has already engaged in sabotage acts for the benefit of kyiv. Of course, this American announcement will cause a lack of information for Ukraine, but this lack is less difficult to fill than a year ago. The real risk is elsewhere.
That’s to say ?
The decisive question will be that of the lifting of American sanctions against Russia. With behind the possibility for Moscow to sell its oil and its gas, and to find access to all the components they lack in the manufacture of their military equipment. If the Russians multiply by two their production of cruise missiles, and can draw 5000 per month instead of 2500, there is material to worry about the Ukrainians.