It’s the Sunday evening oracle. On June 9, after unleashing the lightning of dissolution, Emmanuel Macron bet on the divisions of the left – which would unite in 24 hours. A week later, in front of some stunned ministerial ears, the president declared: “The absolute majority is within reach.” Charity requires us not to dwell on the prognosis made by the Head of State a few days before the European elections. He still imagined Valérie Hayer being familiar with the 20%. Magnifying glass. But who still listens to the President of the Republic? Emmanuel Macron, Cassandra who is wrong.
And yet… Let’s not talk about optimism. Not even hope. But rather hope. She cares about so few things. When the currents carry you away, the smallest piece of wood is a gift from heaven. So, the presidential camp is watching for weak signals a few days before the first round of legislative elections. Here, polls are on the rise. There, the expected increase in participation and the explosion of proxies. The French had abandoned politics. She inhabits them again. Intrudes into daily conversations, monopolizes family dinners. Eclipses everything, even Euro 2024 football.
This renewed interest is fueled by an eternal electoral force: fear. “It’s the word that comes up the most,” notes a minister. “People are very angry with Macron but observe that the extremes are close to power.”
“The fear of the new Popular Front is very strong”
“The extremes. The majority candidates observe the equivalent rejection caused by the National Rally (RN) and La France insoumise (LFI), the dominant force of the alliance on the left. “The fear of the New Popular Front is very strong,” notes Pierre Cazeneuve, candidate in Hauts-de-Seine. “Retirees are terrified, both economically and in terms of values.”
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A minister noted this Thursday the fears of business leaders, when a Renaissance candidate was addressed during an apartment meeting: “How do we make this silent majority who refuse to be taken hostage by the RN and LFI?” The Elysée asks itself the same question: “Participation can exceed 70%. Is there a reasonable silent majority?”
It is not forbidden to be calculator. It is even recommended during an electoral campaign. The executive is riding on the concerns of part of the population to find political oxygen. The Republican front was originally reserved for the second round. Here it is installed from the first.
Republicans of all backgrounds, join us! And so much the worse for a few intellectual shortcuts. From the alliance of the left, the Macronists retain more the repulsive figure of Jean-Luc Mélenchon than its more moderate components. Victory is worth a bit of bad faith. A minister sums up: “It’s been a long time since the first round was so important in an election. My strategy is clear: ‘if you don’t want to choose between RN and Nupes 2, vote for us’.” Third in the polls, the presidential camp risks finding itself absent from the second round in a number of constituencies, or even placed third in a triangular and ordered to withdraw.
“Fight of values”
On Thursday, June 20, we move on to practical work. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal presents his program for “the day after” the legislative elections. He sends his adversaries back to back, the camp of “national denial” and “compromise”. Dissects the projects of his rivals as much as he praises his own.
From this presentation, we remember more the banderillas against the left and the RN than his promise to lower charges above the minimum wage or to experiment with the four-day week. Too bad, that wasn’t the goal. “We are in a fight for values,” says a minister. “We don’t care if we are going to reduce taxes on diesel by two cents.” “It’s a defensive campaign,” admits a Renaissance executive.
The macronie has internalized its own downgrading in public opinion. Its only asset is its adversaries. Their radicalism is its life insurance. Fear as the only lever? Never, we shout in Macronie. The self-proclaimed camp of reason cannot stoop to low maneuvers.
Around the Head of State, we are calling for a two-step strategy. “We must therefore focus on the emotional aspect so that people then make the link to the rational. We want to demonstrate the importance of a useful vote.” Thus, the executive delivers a warning to French people tempted by the left: by eliminating the majority in the first round, social democratic voters would have every chance of installing Jordan Bardella in Matignon. Beware of drunkenness on June 30, a prelude to a hangover on July 7. Each New Popular Front-RN duel has every chance of benefiting the second.
“Macron is aware that he is part of the problem”
“The best way to block the far right is us,” assured Gabriel Attal on Thursday, with a survey to back it up. 41% of French people prefer the RN to the alliance of the left according to a survey carried out by Opinion Way, while 34% make the opposite choice. “In the event of an RN/Popular Front duel, all the moderates tell me that they will not know what to do. At best, they will abstain. It is up to us to convince them of the existential stakes of the vote,” confides Robin Reda, Renaissance candidate in Essonne.
“Many people are more afraid of the RN than of LFI,” supports Ludovic Mendes, running in Moselle. Napalm attacks against the New Popular Front, on the one hand. A wink to his supporters on the other. The strategy filters with schizophrenia – it can upset left-wing French people – but the presidential camp has no other ammunition. He has little chance of convincing the RN electorate, whose sociology is so far removed from his own. The moderate left is its only salvation.
And the head of state, his worst enemy? You see well that you see badly. Would Emmanuel Macron be omnipresent in the campaign? On the contrary… The Elysée is counting and praising the low number of hours of presence: “Two hours during a lunch with the regional daily press on Tuesday, two hours on the Ile de Sein on Thursday, and ‘That’s it! Four hours in a week…’ It’s no longer Jupiter, it’s the invisible man. And modest too, ready for contrition. “He is perfectly aware that he is part of the problem,” swears a relative. “He must let the campaign take place,” says a minister. Stay back and dissociate yourself from the central block, your creature.
Make a brave face against bad luck: he will therefore take the “negative emotion” for himself, in other words the anger that rumbles. So this dissolution would not only “kill the presidential majority”, as Edouard Philippe said, it would also kill Macron as he has presented himself to the French since the first day. Or even… In the current state of the country, all it takes is one word to rob. “Immigrationist”: obviously he chose a shocking term on Wednesday on purpose, to open eyes to the program of the New Popular Front.
Next week, he will continue to send signals to try to direct this famous “useful vote” towards Gabriel Attal. The one who, for mysterious reasons, not only was not consulted on D-Day on the dissolution, but above all was not associated with the reflection which preceded it. The one from which Emmanuel Macron is now obliged to accept what he refused to all his predecessors: a Prime Minister who depends more on the confidence of voters than on the choice of the president.
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