One year after the massacre of October 7, 2023, the atmosphere is more tense than ever in the Middle East, as the conflict extends to Lebanon, Iran and Iraq. Demonstrations celebrated the “Al-Aqsa Flood”, the name given by Hamas to their bloody operation which cost the lives of 1,200 Israelis. Some welcome a victory for the “Islamic resistance” which has shaken the region, and denounce Israeli crimes in Gaza. But other voices condemn the Islamic militias, and in particular Hezbollah, for having involved Lebanon in this war.
For the newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabifinanced by Qatar, on October 7 “revealed that the Zionist project is fragile and susceptible to being broken and dismantled. The security, military and intelligence system has collapsed in the face of the surprise of the Flood” . For the chain Al Jazeera“Israel paid a very high price because of the boycott, as well as on the legal level, after the complaint filed by South Africa. On the military level, the image of the IDF is destroyed: it failed to ensure the security of the Israeli population. These two Arabic-language media, widely followed in the region, do not hesitate to extol the glory of Hamas, which according to them has increased its popularity in the world and has boosted the forces opposed to American hegemony. This pride was demonstrated in the streets during a large rally in Amman, Jordan, where activists held up photos of Yahia Sinouar, paying tribute to Hamas “martyrs” and celebrating the October 7 attack. In Gaza, young men also celebrated the recent Iranian attack on Israel by lighting fires and repeating: “We will do October 7 again.”
The reality is somewhat different from what is portrayed Al-Quds Al-Arabi And Al Jazeera. Since October 7, 2023, the IDF has eliminated numerous Hamas officials: its leader Ismaël Haniyeh, the deputy commander in chief of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades Marwan Issa, the deputy head of the political bureau Saleh Al-Arouri, as well as thousands of other fighters. The Islamic organization, supported by Iran, today appears to have very limited military capabilities against Israel. The civilians of Gaza have paid a heavy price. There are no neutral figures apart from those declared by the Hamas government, but the humanitarian situation is catastrophic. Around 450,000 houses were completely or partially destroyed. According to United Nations reports, “Israeli strikes have transformed large areas of the Gaza Strip into piles of rubble.” In Israel, around 700 soldiers were killed, and 80,000 residents of the north of the country had to be displaced because of Hezbollah missiles. The public deficit amounts to 8.3% of GDP, well above the expected 6.6%.
“Hezbollah only sold us illusions”
Saturday October 5, in Paris, a demonstration took place from the Place de la République to the Place de Clichy in support of “the armed struggle of the Palestinians and the Lebanese against the terrorist state of Israel”. For the BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions) movement, it was “Israel which started these strikes on Lebanon”. Protesters also chanted “Israel, get out of here, Lebanon is not yours.” But in the Middle East, opinions on the war in Lebanon are much more contrasted. Many activists accuse Hezbollah of dragging the country into a conflict that does not concern it. Lebanon, already in the grip of a serious economic crisis since the protests of 2019 and the explosion at the port of Beirut in 2020, is today in a dramatic situation. More than 80% of the population lives below the poverty line. The official dollar exchange rate differs significantly from that on the black market, where it exceeds the barrier of 100,000 pounds to the dollar.
Since the explosion of the pagers on September 17, followed by Nasrallah’s speech insisting on the continuation of missile attacks towards Israel, the situation has worsened. The IDF eliminated hundreds of members of the Islamist group, including its leader. In Syria, and particularly in Idlib, a city liberated from the regime of Bashar al-Assad, many people celebrated the elimination of Nasrallah, distributing baklava in the streets. But for Lebanon’s civilians, the consequences of these strikes are serious: around 350,000 people have had to move, either towards Syria or within the country. Several Shiite figures did not hesitate to condemn Hezbollah. Mohammad Ali al-Housseini, secretary general of the Arab-Islamic Council, accused the movement of following an Iranian agenda that is ruining the Lebanese people. The leader of the Free Shiite movement, Muhammad al-Hajj Hassan, said: “Hezbollah has only sold us illusions. Those who supported it must pay today. Its army did not protect us, it destroyed.”
On social media, notable clashes broke out between Hezbollah’s remaining supporters and those who view it as absolute evil, especially after Iran’s announcement that “no Iranian soldier will participate in the war against Israel in Lebanon”. This statement deeply disappointed many Lebanese.
The silence of Syria
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has struck several Iranian military bases in Syria, including its embassy. The Assad regime, presenting itself as resistant against the Jewish state, condemned these attacks without reacting. Following the elimination of Nasrallah, the regime seems to live in fear. In Damascus, soldiers at checkpoints force those who stick photos of Nasrallah on their cars to remove them. On the Syrian border with Lebanon, on September 30, Israel bombed a town belonging to Maher al-Assad, Bashar’s brother and head of the 4th Armored Division. Israel suspected the presence of an Iranian officer. According to Rami Abdelrahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Israel sent a diplomatic message to Assad: if he participates in this war, the IDF will occupy southern Syria up to Sayyida Zainab, a Shiite commune. south of Damascus. Syria today finds itself unable to participate in a conflict with Israel. The civil war destroyed its infrastructure and considerably deteriorated its economic situation. The Syrian pound has lost more than 99% of its value compared to the pre-war period.
In Iraq, the government has expressed a position favorable to the Palestinian cause, without declaring direct support for Hamas, preferring to focus on calls to protect civilians in Gaza. But after Nasrallah’s assassination, the “Islamic resistance in Iraq”, bringing together several Shiite militias supported by Iran, launched two drones towards the Golan, in the north of Israel. The IDF announced that two of its soldiers were killed and more than 20 others injured. Between October 7, 2023 and January 2024, 179 military operations were carried out by these militias against American or Israeli military bases. The country, where Shiites represent around 60% of the population, is being held hostage by Iran. The risk that the conflict will spread into this territory of 40 million inhabitants is real if Iran continues to use Shiite militias.
Currently, around 100 Israelis are still officially kidnapped. But in the Middle East, among supporters of the “Islamic resistance” as among their opponents, these hostages are largely absent from political debates, with the exception of course of Israel, where families continue to organize demonstrations for their release. These hostages, mostly civilians, have already spent a year in Hamas tunnels. As long as they are not released and Hamas is still present, it is difficult to imagine an end to this conflict.
* Writer and poet born in Damascus, Omar Youssef Souleimane participated in demonstrations against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but, hunted by the secret services, had to flee Syria in 2012. Refugee in France, he published with Flammarion The Little Terrorist, The Last Syrian, A room in exile, and recently Being French.
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