Fortifications, colossal investments, booklets dedicated to the population… Due to their proximity to Russia, the Polish, Swedish and Finnish authorities are anticipating a potential military escalation.
Vladimir Putin warned at the end of September that his country could use nuclear weapons in the event of a “massive launch” of air attacks against Russia, even against a non-nuclear country, but supported by a power with atomic weapons. He has now moved up a gear. On Tuesday, November 19, the Russian president signed the decree expanding the possibilities of resorting to nuclear weapons. A decision which comes on the thousandth day of Russia’s offensive against Ukraine. It also follows the green light given by the United States to kyiv to be able to strike Russia with its long-range missiles. In this hot context, several countries – because of their proximity to Russia – are already beginning to anticipate the worst and are preparing for any eventuality, including a war with Moscow. There PolandSweden and Finland are particularly concerned.
Poland: a 400 km “eastern shield” planned and the first fighter planes deployed
A NATO member country, Poland fears an attack on its territory by Vladimir Putin’s army and wishes to secure its border with its eastern neighbors. That is why fortifications on the border with Russia and Belarus began to be erected. The project: the construction of an “eastern shield” along the border between Poland and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, in the north of Poland and with Belarus, Russia’s ally. Work began on October 31, 2024 and 400 kilometers of fortifications should be deployed. Completion of the work is planned for 2028.
No less than 800 kilometers of ditches will also be dug by Poland to strengthen anti-drone surveillance. Anti-tank fence, telecommunications systems, video surveillance… The arsenal planned by Poland is colossal. The Polish government plans a heavy investment of 2.35 billion euros to secure its borders and will devote 4% of its GDP to defense. The country also relies on funding from Europe. “The purpose of the shield is to protect Polish territory, to hinder the mobility of the enemy’s troops while facilitating that of our troops and to protect civilians,” said Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz. in May 2024.
On Sunday, November 17, 2024, Poland took off fighter jets during a “massive missile and drone attack” by the Russian army against Ukraine. She also claims to have mobilized “all available forces and resources” to protect her country, in the words of the army.“Due to a massive attack by the Russian Federation carrying out cruise missile, ballistic missile and drone strikes against facilities in, among other places, western Ukraine, operations of Polish and allied aircraft in our airspace have begun”, indicated on the social network X the Polish central command. An attack intended to “ensure security in sectors adjoining threatened areas”, he added. Close to the front, Poland is not the only country to take its measures and to worry about an extension of the war.
Sweden, Finland: a booklet sent to 5 million people and an informative website
In January 2024, the Swedish Minister of Civil Defense, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, declared that “there could be a war in Suede“. In a press release, the director of MSBthe Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency indicated that the “security situation is serious and we all need to strengthen our resilience in order to be able to face crises, and, ultimately, war”. Statements which reinforce the idea that military aid to Ukraine constitutes a priority for Stockholm, as well as taking very seriously the threat that Russia represents for its own territory.
In this sense, Sweden began, Monday November 18, 2024, to send five million brochures to its inhabitants, inviting them to prepare for a potential conflict. The Swedish booklet – named Om krisen eller kriget kommet (In case of crisis or war) – contains practical recommendations for dealing with war or various natural disasters. Over 32 pages, he describes the threats facing Sweden. Location of fallout shelters, reliable sources of information, choice of foodstuffs, stockpiling… Advice and illustrations also fill this booklet. 5.2 million brochures will be sent to the Swedish population in the next two weeks. Documents also available online and in other languages, such as Ukrainian, Polish, Finnish and Arabic.
It is important to clarify that the Swedish booklet never explicitly mentions either Ukraine or Russia. On the other hand, it puts into perspective the increasing military threat weighing on Sweden. The country has not been involved in armed conflict since the Napoleonic Wars at the start of the 19th century. For its part, the Finland – which shares 1,340 kilometers of border with Russia – has created and made available to its citizens a website with numerous tips for preparing in the event of a crisis. The site has been accessible since Monday, November 18. As a reminder, the two countries – Sweden and Finland – abandoned several decades of military non-alignment and entered NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Respectively in March 2024 for Sweden and a year earlier, in March 2023 for Finland.