LEGISLATIVE SURVEY. Several polls make it possible to measure the balance of power at stake in these 2022 legislative elections. All the polls currently predict a majority in the political camp of Emmanuel Macron.
Can we already have an idea of the number of deputies of the presidential majority even before the first round of the legislative elections? The polls, before each election, are part of the election: these photos of public opinion give more or less relevant, more or less enlightening lessons, but they are always scrutinized by political observers… and candidates. This is still very true for these 2022 legislative elections: if only to understand how these elections are perceived by the French or to get an idea of the abstention – record – which is taking shape.
The key datum of these polls on the legislative elections, because it establishes an immediately apprehensible political balance of power, is of course that of voting intentions for the first round. However, these polls should be taken with all the necessary distance: the result they show is national and does not correspond to a reality that has no real political meaning: the number of votes obtained by each party is a relatively unimportant fact. significant on the scale of the country, what counts in these legislative elections is the number of seats won, the number of constituencies won. There are actually 577 different elections in this great election of the 2022 legislative elections, the most relevant survey data is therefore the final projection in number of deputies.
According to the latest Ipsos survey, carried out with Cevipof to The world, published Monday, May 23, the alliance of the parties LREM, Modem and Horizons would be in this perspective the big winner of these legislative elections with between 290 to 330 seats won at the end of the 2nd round. The Nupes would be the first opposition force, with 165 to 195 seats of deputies. For its part, the National Rally would get between 20 and 45, and the Republicans and their allies between 35 and 65. Remember that the absolute majority is won with 289 seats.
What does the latest poll say about voting intentions for the 2022 legislative elections?
The latest Ipsos poll, published Monday, May 23, places the confederation of the presidential majority, Together! , at the top of the voting intentions of the 1st round of the legislative elections. According to this survey, 28% of French people questioned want to support a candidate from Ensemble! in the 1st round of the legislative elections, 27% a candidate invested by Nupes, 21% a candidate supported by the RN, 9% a candidate invested by the Republicans, and 6% a Reconquest candidate.
What are the poll projections for the 2022 legislative elections?
According to the latest Ipsos poll, dated May 23, the confederation Together! put in place to allow Emmanuel Macron to retain the majority in the National Assembly would win the legislative elections. LREM, the MoDem, Horizons, as well as the other allied parties would win between 290 and 330 seats. Note that the polling institute is betting on a push from the left at the Bourbon Palace which, thanks to the Nupes coalition, could have 165 to 195 deputies. The Republicans and the UDI would limit the damage with 35 to 65 elected officials, while the RN would have between 20 and 45, obtaining a parliamentary group.
*The number of seats corresponds to the average between the low projection and the high projection made by the polling institute.
What participation rate do the polls predict?
The latest Ipsos survey for The world estimates the participation rate in the first round of legislative elections at between 45% and 49% of registered voters. Participation changes in proportion to the age of those registered: while only 32% of 18-24 year olds plan to vote, this is the case for 57% of 65-69 year olds, and 66% of those aged 70 and over. .
What do the polls say about Macron’s wishes for victory or defeat in the legislative elections?
Before any screening, questions had been asked about the legislative elections to voters, on the sidelines of the second round of the presidential election. Several institutes have tried to gauge the “wishes for victory” or “defeat” for Emmanuel Macron in these legislative elections, but also the wishes for “majority” or even “cohabitation” for the Head of State. In an Ifop poll published on the evening of the second round of the presidential election for TF1, LCI, Paris Match and Sud Radio, voters from a sample of 4,827 people registered on the electoral lists thus indicated 68% that they wanted ‘at the end of the next legislative elections “the oppositions represent the majority of the deputies in the National Assembly and impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron”. 32% “only” therefore wanted “Emmanuel Macron to benefit from a majority of deputies in the National Assembly”.
A desired defeat of Emanuel Macron?
Two other surveys also lean very clearly towards cohabitation for this second five-year term of Emmanuel Macron. The first one, conducted by OpinionWay for Cnews and Europe 1, indicates that 63% of those polled prefer that the Head of State “does not have a majority and is forced to cohabit”, against 35% who want him “to have a majority in the National Assembly and can pursue its policy”. The detailed figures corroborate the Ifop survey: 95% of voters for Marine Le Pen, 84% of those for Eric Zemmour, 77% of voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 63% of those for Yannick Jadot and 55% of those of Valérie Pécresse prefer to see Macron fail in the June legislative elections. OpinionWay also polled its sample on the desired cohabitation Prime Minister: 46% would favor Marine Le Pen and 44% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, while only 8% would prefer Valérie Pécresse.
Last survey of its kind published on the evening of the second round: a Ipsos Sopra-Steria survey for France TV, Le Parisien and Radio France, is more measured. But the majority (56%) of respondents also answer that they want Emmanuel Macron to lose the legislative elections, against 24% who prefer a victory to “avoid cohabitation” and 20% who want it “to apply his program”. The trends remain the same, with a few deviations, with 87% of Marine Le Pen voters in favor of a defeat, 84% of those of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 80% of those of Eric Zemmour, 49% of those of Yannick Jadot and 40% of those of Valérie Pécresse. Note: 57% of those questioned say they are in favor, during the legislative elections, of an alliance of left-wing parties (LFI, EELV, PCF and PS), including 93% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters and 85% from those of Yannick Jadot.
Wishes also expressed by political party in the legislative elections
The same poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria also asks the question of the legislative elections in a slightly different way by asking respondents if they want parties to emerge “strengthened” or “weakened” from the elections. A question that is still far from a voting intention, but comes slightly closer. In this little game, 39% say they want to see La France Insoumise “reinforced” after the election next June against 29% who would prefer it “weakened”, a figure comparable to that of the National Rally with 38% (against 36% ).
Behind, the balance is systematically reversed: 36% want to see Europe-Ecologie Les Verts “weakened” (against 29% “strengthened”), 38% for the Republic on the Move (against 26%), 40% for the Communist Party (against 16%), 44% for the Reconquest party! of Eric Zemmour (against 20%) and finally 47% for the Socialist Party (against 18%) tied with Les Républicains (against 15% “reinforced”). Note that a quarter to a third of respondents answer “neither one nor the other” the question.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections will be very different from those cast for this presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power. In the 566 metropolitan and overseas constituencies (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen had managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.