“Caution”, these are the words of the head of state reported by his entourage as the contours of the new National Assembly gradually took shape. In the tripartition that is looming, the Macronie camp comes in second place. At the end of the second round of the legislative elections, on July 7, it managed to gather between 163 (according to Franceinfo estimates) and 168 deputies (according to those of World). An unexpected result if we remember the projections the day after the first round, announcing Emmanuel Macron’s supporters at around a hundred deputies.
One of the major architects of the survival of the outgoing majority is called the “Republican front”. A formula inherited from that of “Republican barrier”, born in 2002 the day after Jean-Marie Le Pen reached the second round of the presidential election. The latest emerged only a few days ago.
On June 30, on the evening of the results of the first round of the legislative elections – during which the National Rally (RN) and its allies had seen 39 of their candidates elected straight away and 258 others come out on top – Jean-Luc Mélenchon demanded, on X, the withdrawal of all New Popular Front candidates who came in third place.
The strategy proved to be successful. Out of the 128 duels that pitted them against the RN, Ensemble won 105 – as shown in our infographic below. The outgoing majority also practiced the strategy of withdrawal to limit as much as possible any three-way contest in which an RN or allied candidate would be in the lead.
The NFP also benefited from this, enough in any case to win the largest number of deputies in the new legislature. Thus, in the 1st constituency of the Somme, François Ruffin was re-elected by a hair’s breadth (52.95%), benefiting in particular from the transfer of votes from those who had voted for Albane Branlant (Renaissance) in the first round.
Republicans hold on
The other surprise of this election night is between the right of Macronie and the left of the National Rally. Those who did not want the alliance with the party with the flame win the arm wrestling with Eric Ciotti.
The executives who remained faithful to the historical line managed to keep 39 seats. They will be 66 deputies if we include the 25 various right-wingers and the two elected members of the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI).
The LR won almost all the duels opposing them to the RN: out of 39, they only lost 7. They even allowed themselves to keep a few constituencies in the Mediterranean basin, a major territorial conquest of the RN during these elections. Ironically, this stronghold of the Republican right (7th, 8th and 9th constituencies of the Alpes-Maritimes) is located on the lands of the seditious Éric Ciotti.
The LR leader, who had formed an alliance with the National Rally shortly after the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly without consulting his peers, had exposed the dissensions that were beginning to simmer within the political party. Mixed results for the one who succeeded in his re-election in his constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes. Eric Ciotti just managed to obtain the number of deputies necessary to form a parliamentary group in the National Assembly – 17 deputies for the LR-RN, knowing that 15 are needed for a parliamentary group.
Although far, very far from the absolute majority they had imagined, the RN executives can nevertheless congratulate themselves on having retained most of the constituencies acquired in 2022. Another spoils of war, the rallying of these 17 LR deputies as well as the arrival of 37 new deputies within their parliamentary group. They now go from 89 deputies to 126.