The NFP has promised to file a motion of censure against the Barnier government, while the RN is waiting to judge on the evidence without ruling out the option. The danger could also come from elsewhere for the ministers.
Formed in pain, will Michel Barnier’s government last in the long term? That is the question. The Prime Minister himself knows that his executive is at the mercy of a motion of censure. “My mandate is fragile, but we will do our best” he acknowledged on the set of the 8 p.m. news France 2on Sunday, September 22, 2024, the day after the appointment of his government.
Michel Barnier and his 39 ministers will not escape motions of censure, which are likely to be numerous, but they hope to overcome them. The first attempt to overthrow the executive should occur at the opening of the ordinary session of the National Assembly, after the Prime Minister’s general policy speech on October 1. The New Popular Front (NFP) should be at the origin of it and more precisely the Socialist Party (PS) as Olivier Faure, head of the political party, indicated on France 2September 22. The initiative is far from being a surprise since the NFP promised in August to censure any government that was not left-wing and/or led by Lucie Castets.
The motion of censure promised by the left, a priori defended by the socialists, has however little chance of succeeding. “I know very well that Marine Le Pen has decided to give her blessing to the Barnier government and therefore I do not think that she will vote for the motion of censure”, anticipated the leader of the PS, acknowledging that the text will be “probably doomed to failure”.
To be adopted, a motion of censure must receive the majority of the members composing the Assembly at the time of the vote, i.e. 289 votes if the 577 elected representatives are sitting on election day. However, the NFP coalition has 182 deputies, so additional votes are necessary and this reserve of votes is found in the ranks of the 126 deputies of the National Rally (RN). The far-right party has however refused to censure the government before knowing its policy and therefore intends to give at least a few days, or even a few weeks, of reprieve to the new ministers and the tenant of Matignon.
The overthrow of the Barnier government remains very likely
If the first motion of censure is unlikely to signal the end of the Barnier government, less than two weeks after its appointment, other texts of the same ilk could overthrow the executive only a few weeks later. The left is determined to censure the government and the far right is not closing the door to this idea either. On the contrary, the RN likes to play the role of arbitrator: it sets the conditions for its support for the government and threatens to censure it if the demands are not met. “We will judge on the evidence. […] “It is we who will decide whether or not this government has a future” declared RN MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy on France Inter September 23. Jordan Bardella already seems to be leaning towards one side of the scale after the officialization of the casting of the ministerial team: “This ‘new’ government marks the return of Macronism through a back door. […] “It is therefore a government that has no future,” declared the president of the RN in a message on X.
Far-right elected officials are not the only ones who are tempted to censure the government. Their ally Eric Ciotti, who announced his departure from the Republican party, made it known on RTL that he “will vote for a motion of censure if there are taxes that hit both the French and businesses”. However, the Prime Minister has several times opened the way to an increase in taxes for certain categories of people and businesses, particularly the wealthiest, before the vote on the 2025 budget.
More unexpectedly, support for a motion of censure could come from the ranks of Macron’s party. The presidential party and allied political parties (MoDem, Horizons, UDI) support the government since they participate in it, but the left wing of the coalition could dissociate itself and oppose the executive. Some elected officials like Sacha Houlié left the group of deputies Ensemble pour la République (EPR) to sit as non-registered and not be required to give any forced support. Others like Stella Dupont do not rule out a potential censure: “It’s possible, even if it’s not at all what I want. We need stability, work, compromise. But we need open, pragmatic people. The extremely hard line of many ministers worries me,” she said on RMCAccording to her, the “government is too right-wing and does not reflect the aspirations of the French.”
Days, weeks or months for the Barnier government?
It is difficult to know if and when the Barnier government could be overthrown. He has at least ten days ahead of him since even if a motion of censure is tabled on October 1, it will not be voted on until two days later. Article 49 of the Constitution provides that a motion of censure can only be voted on “forty-eight hours after it is tabled”. For the rest, it depends on the recurrence with which motions of censure are tabled. There is no limit to the number of times motions can be tabled. The only rules set are that each text must be signed by one tenth of the elected members of the National Assembly, or 58 deputies, and that each elected member cannot sign more than three motions of censure per parliamentary session, that is to say between October and June.
The left, with 182 elected representatives, can alone submit up to nine motions of censure. The RN elected representatives can defend at least six of them, and that’s without counting on the texts that could come from dissidents of the political groups supposed to support the government…