Without waiting for the transfer of power on January 20, Donald Trump has already (re)started his show. Less than two weeks before his inauguration, he began with a fireworks display of provocations towards his allies, who were stunned. During an impromptu press conference from his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, the president-elect assured that he was not ruling out anything. Nor to attack Panama to regain control of the interoceanic canal ceded to this country at the end of 1999. Nor to seize Greenland – an integral part of Denmark for two centuries. Nor to put pressure on Canada to make it the 51st American state.
At the same time, the son of the elected president, “Don Jr” arrived in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, on official duty: a special envoy from his father, he had come to create a buzz by multiplying the number of selfies with a handful of indigenous people wearing their hair. MAGA caps (Make America Great Again) distributed by him.
The 47th American president was believed to be an isolationist, wanting to turn America in on itself; we discover him to be an imperialist. “He has a very 19th century vision of the world,” says Jacob Heilbrunn, who directs the geopolitics review The National Interest. In line with President Monroe’s doctrine [1817-1825]he wants to divide the world into “spheres of influence” and believes that the United States has no allies, only competitors or adversaries. He believes he can achieve more through aggression than through cooperation: in this, he resembles Vladimir Putin…” We are warned: with the return of Trump, international relations will be defined above all by the law of the strongest.
China in the crosshairs
It is an understatement to say that the small kingdom of Denmark (6 million souls), member of the European Union and NATO, hardly appreciated this declaration of hostility. “The Danes feel betrayed, especially since they have been an exemplary partner of America for a long time,” summarizes the daily’s editor-in-chief in Copenhagen. Berlingske Pierre Collignon. Engaged in Afghanistan, the Danish army lost 44 men, the highest casualty rate in NATO, relative to the country’s population; to which must be added 7 deaths in Iraq.
But why does Donald Trump enjoy destabilizing his European and American allies so much? “Part of the answer comes down to psychology: without a filter, he loves to scare people and outrage journalists and commentators,” replies Eliot A. Cohen, former advisor to the Department of Foreign Affairs under George W. Bush.
But we must also recognize that his words correspond to real concerns. Greenland, where 57,000 inhabitants live, is a territory of high strategic value in the Arctic, which must be defended from Chinese desires.” In Panama, it is also China that is targeted. American leaders are concerned about Beijing’s takeover of several ports and free zones at the entrance to the canal whose strategic value, in the event of war, would be inestimable.
“In search of easy victories”
From there to ordering a military operation? For Jacob Heibrunn, nothing can be ruled out: “He is looking for easy victories and the American generals are not in a position to disobey an order emanating from civil power.” It would be enough for Trump to declare a state of national emergency for a period of ninety days, adds the analyst, convinced that the president will resort to this extreme anyway to expel hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants. Other observers are more circumspect. “The American president cannot trigger conflicts with the snap of his fingers,” emphasizes Eliot Cohen. Will all resistance hold up in this new context? “Military and members of the government could take Trump literally,” he admits, however.
In any case, Trumpian unpredictability puts European actors in a state of stress that they have not experienced since… the Republican’s previous mandate. It is true that on January 20, the world enters terra incognita. Not only can almost no one stop Trump, who controls all powers – the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court. But, in addition, he has added a “viceroy” in the person of Elon Musk who, too, dreams of shattering the established rules. The boss of SpaceX, Tesla and
Already, Donald Trump’s closest advisor is increasing his interference in European political life. In the United Kingdom, Elon Musk unearthed a child abuse scandal with the aim of bringing down Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer, calling for early elections. In Germany, a few weeks before the legislative elections in February, he is calling to vote for Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), “the last glimmer of hope” in a country led by Olaf Scholz treated as an “incompetent imbecile”. Musk also offered an unexpected platform to Alice Weidel – leader of this anti-migrant, pro-Russian and Eurosceptic party – and candidate for the post of chancellor, in a streaming interview on January 9 on X.
Elon Musk’s ambiguous status in the Trump galaxy alone represents a challenge. Unelected and not a member of the presidential cabinet – but at the head of a non-governmental body responsible for making recommendations to cut bureaucratic spending – the entrepreneur does not represent the American state. Strictly speaking, his comments therefore do not amount to interference. And he presents himself as a simple individual exercising his freedom of expression. “The danger it poses to European democratic life is nevertheless very real,” assesses expert David Colon, author of Information warfare. States conquering our minds (Tallandier). He had the algorithm that manages his own profile on followers. As a result, affect our public debates.”
But both Musk and Trump abhor the world order inherited from the Second World War. They abhor UN institutions and despise European democracies. Faced with the offensive launched by this infernal tandem, Europe has something to worry about. Panicked at the idea that the new president would stop helping Ukraine, the EU nevertheless remains silent in the face of the belligerent outbursts of the Trump-Musk duo. This does not bode well. The legal measures it has adopted seem insufficient to counter the excesses of American social networks in terms of disinformation and manipulation of opinion. An investigation against of Trump.
A question remains: to what extent will the next tenant of the White House, supported by guru Musk, abuse his dominant position? “Having achieved the most extraordinary comeback in American history, he feels stronger than ever,” points out Jacob Heilbrunn, of National Interest. The assassination attempt from which he miraculously escaped further reinforced the messianic idea he has of himself. He now thinks he’s an infallible genius, like Putin.” Not really reassuring.
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