how, even before his inauguration, he has already changed the world – L’Express

how even before his inauguration he has already changed the

He’s not yet president… but that’s just it. Elected on November 5, Donald Trump must officially access the White House on January 20 after taking the oath on the Bible. Until then, he is just a “president-elect” (president electin English) without any power. However, far from remaining in the background as is usually the case during periods of transition, the future head of state is already behaving as if he were in charge. As soon as his electoral victory, he formed his cabinet in a few days, multiplied the announcements on social networks, monopolized the attention of the media. He met or exchanged with dozens of heads of state, discussed peace in Ukraine with Volodymyr Zelensky, talked about the border with Claudia Sheinbaum [la présidente du Mexique] and threatened Hamas with “hell” if the terrorist organization did not release the hostages still held in Gaza, including Americans. More generally, it has already “moved the lines” in Europe, Ukraine, the Middle East and Asia.

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“Better prepared than during his first accession to power in 2016, Donald Trump acts with more speed than his predecessors did during periods of presidential transition,” notes former “Speaker” of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, interviewed by L’Express as part of the 17th World Policy Conference organized in Abu Dhabi by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) from December 13 to 15. “For example, he has already warned China against exporting chemical precursors to Mexico, where the deadly Fentanyl is manufactured before being sent to the United States where it causes a massacre; at the same time, he invited Xi Jinping to Washington to attend the transfer of power in January,” adds the Republican elected official who speaks of an “acceleration of the tempo” since the election of Trump.

Also present in Abu Dhabi, CDU deputy of the Bundestag Norbert Röttgen adds: “There is clearly a “Trump effect”. I have never seen any American president – ​​neither Obama nor anyone before him – have such an impact on the discussions geopolitics and international relations before even taking office”, remarks the Christian Democrat who chaired the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag until 2021. He details: “By letting casting doubt on the level of the United States’ military commitment in NATO, Donald Trump creates uncertainty which leverages European partners. It forces them to think about the level of spending that they must allocate to them. own defense within the Atlantic Alliance.” Already, the discussion no longer revolves around the famous criterion of 2% of GDP that each country must devote to its defense but around a new objective of 3%. Even this new figure might not be enough. According to the Financial TimesDonald Trump could set the threshold at 5% ahead of the next NATO summit in June in The Hague (Netherlands), in exchange for which the United States would continue to support Ukraine. Otherwise…

Whatever happens, everyone is already positioning themselves regarding the next president of the United States. The centrality of the latter was evident on December 7 in Paris during the reopening ceremonies of Notre-Dame. The simple announcement of his arrival has, it seems, decided several hesitant heads of state to make the trip which they would undoubtedly not have made in his absence. After a tripartite meeting at the Elysée with Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky to talk about peace in Ukraine, the president monopolized the attention of all the cameras during his “royal” entry into the cathedral. Georgian President Salomé Zourabichvili, for example, got up from her seat to greet Donald Trump sitting in the front row, hoping to be dubbed by the American. In the midst of political turmoil, Georgia is seeking support from the United States in the face of pressure from Moscow, which wants to force the Caucasian republic to enter Moscow’s orbit. Among the other heads of state met in Paris was the Italian Giorgia Meloni, held in high esteem by the Trumpian sphere.

Before that, at the end of November, the president-elect had also received Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who rushed to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s residence in Florida, to talk about securing the Canadian border: Trump threatens to impose 25% customs duties on Ottawa if Canada does not stop the flow of migrants arriving in the United States. “It is not trivial to see so many international leaders courting a head of state who has not even taken office,” remarks Yuichi Hosoya, professor of international relations in Tokyo, recalling that 54,000 American soldiers are stationed in Japan. Everyone knows that with Donald Trump, it is essential to maintain a personal relationship, as the Argentinian Javier Milei is building one (he also went to Mar-a-Lago in November). “To nourish the link with Trump, continues the Japanese expert, our country relies on Taro Aso [l’ancien vice-premier ministre de Shinzo Abe, de 2012 à 2021]. His personal relationship with Trump, whom he went to see in Trump Tower last April, allows him to send messages,” he observes. And he adds: “The relationship of Asian countries with Trump will be facilitated by the fact that they prefer him to Kamala Harris or European leaders who spend their time trying to impose their values ​​on the rest of the world.”

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Several other factors explain why Donald Trump is already treated like a head of state. First, he has already held the supreme office. Some of his counterparts – Emmanuel Macron, Putin, etc. – were in charge during his first term and already know him. They are therefore not in a position to consider her a beginner. Then – and this is the determining element – ​​the United States has been going through a situation of virtual power vacuum for almost six months. “The excitement around Donald Trump reflects the political vacuum that was created after Joe Biden’s catastrophic debate at the end of June and Kamala Harris’s improvised campaign that followed,” notes non-Trumpist Republican Eliot A. Cohen, who served as Deputy Secretary of State of the United States under George W. Bush. And added: “The current tenant of the White House [Biden] should never have embarked on a second application. Today, it is incredibly weakened while the global situation, unstable as never before since the Second World War, requires leadership.”

In fact, the model of European social democracies is weakened by demographic aging and the economic slowdown. In the Middle East, the old secular Baathist systems (Iraq, Syria) which, in the 20th century, guaranteed stability, no longer exist. For its part, Iran is weakened after the destruction of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. For its part, Russia tried in vain – and at the cost of hundreds of thousands of deaths – to rebuild its empire. And Turkey, for its part, harbors neo-Ottoman ambitions which translate into military interventions in Africa and the Middle East. In Asia, China is modernizing its army while dreaming of conquering Taiwan. In other words, Donald Trump is returning to power in a highly unstable world where his reputation as a tough man is likely to bring stability.

A more experienced and solid team

“Moreover, Donald Trump is more experienced today than he was in 2016, with a fairly realistic approach to the world and a rather solid team,” adds the geographer and diplomat Michel Foucher, a fine connoisseur, among others, of the Russian world. In fact, Donald Trump chose Mike Waltz to occupy the strategic position of national security advisor at the White House: he is a former colonel of the special forces (the famous “green berets”) who worked in the administration of George W. Bush in the areas of defense and intelligence. And he appointed Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State [ministre des Affaires étrangères]. Vice-president of the Senate Intelligence Committee, which gives him access to classified information, he is also perfectly familiar with the mechanisms of totalitarian regimes, being himself a native of Cuba.

“There is indeed a ‘Trump effect'”, concludes the founder of Ifri and the World Policy conference Thierry de Montbrial. “To measure it, it is enough to note that, unlike in 2016, the elected president is, this time, taken seriously by all the protagonists of the international system. In the Middle East, he is also credited with an important success during his first mandate: the conclusion of agreements of Abraham between Israel and four Sunni countries (Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Morocco). In Abu Dhabi last week, Emirati diplomat Anwar Gargash acknowledged that these agreements had “gone through a difficult period” since the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 in southern Israel. “But they must continue to serve as a platform for increased cooperation in the region,” also hoped the diplomatic advisor to Emirati President Mohamed ben Zayed. At no time did he or any participant at the World Policy Conference, for three days, mention Joe Biden’s name.

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