What if the Audi factory in Brussels was transformed into a military equipment assembly site? The idea of the Belgian Minister of Defense recently caused some raises of eyebrows to our neighbors. “It is not a joke,” said Theo Francken, who claims to be in contact with defense manufacturers to convert the production channels from which electrical Q8 models were still coming out last year.
In reality, the Flemish nationalist is not the only one in Brussels to think about the synergies between the automobile and the defense sector. At the European Commission, Stéphane Sévisé’s cabinet is working on the subject and in particular the possibility of converting certain equipment manufacturers, made vulnerable by the planned end of the heat engine in 2035. The Italy of Giorgia Meloni has already made known its interest in European initiatives. “This phosphorus in all corners,” said one in the entourage of the French vice-president of the Commission.
Entering a “new era”
The partial reorientation of the European economy towards the war effort therefore seems to be out of course. It took the telluric tremors caused by Donald Trump’s behavior to launch an unimaginable fighting background a few months ago. His phone call to Vladimir Putin in mid-February and even more humiliation suffered by the Ukrainian president in the Oval Office last week woke up the historic allies of the United States, including the most Atlanticist like the Poles, the Germans or the Danes. “We have all become Gaullists,” said Caspar Veldkamp, the Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister. “We are entering a new era,” summarizes the president of the European Commission in her letter addressed to the 27 heads of state and government who meet this Thursday in Brussels for an extraordinary summit.
Suddenly, the announcements follow one another and amount to hundreds of billions of euros: 800 billion in the European defense plan drawn by Brussels on Tuesday; At least 100 billion investments per year promised by the new coalition which will soon take the reins in Berlin. “Who would have believed only three weeks ago that we would be there today!” Breathe a senior official at the heart of the discussions.
Very powerful financial instruments
After months of procrastination, the calendar has actually accelerated. Instead of waiting for the publication of a white paper on the defense long scheduled for March 19, Ursula von der Leyen has put proposals on the table on which the 27 will decide this week. It is a question of giving a boost to the European defense industry, which had been waiting for months clear signals. This time, we are there, and the financial markets have also reacted positively. The former German Defense Minister suggests that the European Union borrows 150 billion euros on the markets and then grants competitive loans to capitals to allow them to place group orders to companies on the old continent. Brussels also intends to soften the rules of the budgetary stability pact to allow up to 1.5 % of the GDP of more military expenditure. “These instruments are very powerful and can make it possible to accelerate clearly,” promises a European diplomat who draws the parallel with the covid crisis and the common production of vaccines.
“Industrialists need stability and predictability. From now on, money is there and the unpredictability of the four years of Trump presidency should paradoxically guarantee a form of stability,” abounds Philippe Perchoc, head of the European Office of IRSEM (Strategic Research Institute of the Military School). During the meeting on Thursday, European leaders must also formalize for the first time the priority targets of their future investments: air defense, missiles, artillery systems or even drones and ammunition. “Defense Europe becomes a reality. The time of action is finally opening,” said President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday evening.
And it is probably by finished. In June, the next NATO summit will set objectives in terms of desired equipment and expenditure levels. Until then, Europeans could take other initiatives. Some, France in the lead, have not given up the idea of a new big common borrowing, on the model of the post-Cavid recovery plan. “For the moment, we have no government in Germany,” points out a French source which recalls the crucial piloting of Paris and Berlin at the time.
Finally, we will also have to convince European public opinion. In northern and east of Europe, populations have an acute conscience of the threat and are ready to make sacrifices. It is less true to the west. “Security or social security? This is the debate that is still before us,” said Philippe Perchoc de l’Irsem. On Wednesday evening, Emmanuel Macron promised that there would be no tax increase in France, while explaining that “our generation will no longer affect dividends of peace”. In contrast, some people point out that in Denmark, retirement has already switched to 70 years.