An informal exchange among many others. This August, Emmanuel Macron probes a regular interlocutor on the choice of Prime Minister. “A politician or a technician?” asks the head of state. The question leaves his visitor speechless. A politician, what a question! The failure of a technician is that of his creator. A politician fails alone, like a soldier falls in war. Emmanuel Macron, weakened by his defeat in the legislative elections, must pro-te-ge himself. Yes, but no. The president thinks for a time about a figure from civil society for Matignon, like the president of the Cese Thierry Beaudet. Protect oneself, why? Isn’t that the first stone of erasure? And the man is not the type to fade away.
So many trial balloons or aborted negotiations have not been in vain. Emmanuel Macron decided this Thursday to appoint Michel Barnier to Matignon. But let’s not be mistaken. He chose the former European Commissioner rather than the unsuccessful candidate in the LR primary for the 2022 presidential election. A close friend of Emmanuel Macron is still surprised by this strange head of state, incapable of “envisaging a reality that does not depend on him”. The Barnier choice illustrates this psychology. That of a president hostile to any cohabitation, so much are the ideological orientations of the two men twins. That of a man casting a paternalistic eye on the Assembly, ensuring that “the lucky chosen one” will not be censored once mounted to the podium of the hemicycle. Stay at the heart of the reactor, even if it means exposing oneself. Influence can take the form of a noose.
“He puts a lot of pressure on himself”
Back to August 26. At the end of a series of consultations, Emmanuel Macron announced that he would not appoint the representative of the New Popular Front (NFP) Lucie Castets to Matignon. The president abhors her radical program but invokes the “immediate censure” that the senior civil servant would suffer in the chamber. He then assigns himself the obligation to choose a Prime Minister “uncensorable” by the National Assembly. This rule, written nowhere in the Constitution, serves his political interest. But obliges him for the future, and ties his hands.
Thus the head of state finds himself at the mercy of virtual censorship pronounced on the continuous news channels. BFMTV, new institutional justice of the peace. Farewell, Xavier Bertrand sent to the stake by Marine Le Pen. Sorry Thierry Beaudet, but your name does not arouse much enthusiasm. The presidential quest is taking on the appearance of a way of the cross.
Every day that passes makes the head of state responsible for the chaos. In the former majority, some are urging him to make Parliament responsible in order to divert the focus. If the deputies censure a Prime Minister, let them explain it to the French! “He puts himself under particular pressure, but will have to pass the ball to Parliament,” confided a minister. “But since he has made non-censorship a prerequisite for any appointment, it is hard to change gear.” A close friend is upset about an initial “misdirection” – “wanting to compose non-virtual censures” – which is now irrecoverable. The latest pitfall: in seeking a Prime Minister who is tolerable for the National Rally, the president is being tried for collusion with the extreme right.
“They will say that he is irresponsible”
Blame the Assembly to avoid bullets. The analysis has the force of evidence. It is only an imperfect translation of the trap in which Emmanuel Macron finds himself. Since the dissolution is his work, the governmental instability will be blamed on him by essence. A fragmented Assembly is not enough to make France lose its presidential culture. Here, there is no culture of the falls of successive governments. Everything goes back to the leader, the divide between the Elysée and Parliament does not exist. “If Macron appoints a person who is censored the next day, people will say that he is irresponsible,” notes a minister. “Heads I lose, tails you win.
A vicious circle is emerging: the longer the president takes to find the rare pearl for Matignon – the one who would not be overthrown in the Assembly – the more he dramatizes the censure. If it occurs, he is the first victim. A fierce opponent of the head of state, Bruno Retailleau sums up the insoluble presidential equation. “If he were to appoint a Prime Minister who would be immediately censured, Emmanuel Macron would be the fuse.” When Michel Barnier delivers his general policy statement (DPG), he will not only be committing his personal future. The Fifth Republic is walking on its head, QED.
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