Before being appointed to Matignon, François Bayrou readily recounted that it was he who, on June 11, 2024, during a lunch with Emmanuel Macron in which Gabriel Attal, Edouard Philippe and Stéphane Séjourné also participated, had set foot in the flat: the president, in the legislative campaign which opened following the dissolution, had to learn silence.
Twenty times on the job… The new Prime Minister will have to show perseverance with this head of state who is decidedly incapable of remaining within his perimeter. François Bayrou will not have failed to note the little sentence, during the presidential address of December 31: “This presupposes a France which continues to be attractive, which works and innovates more, which continues to create jobs and which ensures its growth while maintaining its finances. I will see to it.” Will the head of state see to it? In what capacity?
It’s a return to square one. On July 23, 2024, for his first intervention after the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron shows to what extent he thinks he will keep control. On France 2, he remarks that “the country’s urgency is not to destroy what we have just done, but to build and move forward”, he expresses his desire that the policy of fight against unemployment and the attractiveness of France, he even adds that we must “consolidate” competitiveness. Now if there is one area which does not allow any dispute regarding the interpretation of the role of the president and that of the government, it is economic policy. It fully falls within the scope of Article 20, the very one which Emmanuel Macron privately agreed was now taking on much more force – but, obviously, without resolving to do so: “The government determines and conducts the policy of the nation.”
The almost existential choice of Emmanuel Macron
The Barnier experience – which, the head of state argued, was supposed to last until 2027 – shows the extent to which the Elysée did not accept some of the measures recommended by the Savoyard. The way in which the tax issue arose this fall quickly worried Emmanuel Macron. “I don’t believe in consolidation through taxes, because the signal is bad, so revenues will not correspond to expectations, you are running behind the horizon,” observed a loyalist of the head of state. Is the presence at Bercy of Eric Lombard likely to reassure Emmanuel Macon and Alexis Kohler? The name of the former president of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations was one of those with which the president had played a lot since the summer – he mentioned it again on December 5 in front of the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher, the day after the censorship of the government of Michel Barnier. In La Tribune Sunday of December 29, the Minister of the Economy recounts having “met François Bayrou during the 2007 presidential campaign, when we created the Gracques group with a few friends” and specifies that “this political companionship with the Prime Minister counted in [s]”decision to accept this mission”. With all due respect to the Head of State, the Bayrou-Lombard axis must count more than the Macron-Kohler-Lombard axis.
Incorrigible president. Raising the possibility of resorting to a referendum is another way to stay on the front line. During the 2023 Saint-Denis meetings, Emmanuel Macron did not beat around the bush, telling party leaders: “I remind you that the referendum is in my hands.” This is no longer the case since the dissolution. Whether it is the use of article 11 or article 89 of the Constitution, the agreement of the government or Parliament is a prerequisite that Emmanuel Macron, this time, will not be able to circumvent – we remember how he sat on Article 12 during the dissolution, not carrying out any of the consultations he had a duty to carry out.
For a long time, François Bayrou had a dream: to have the reform of the voting method for the election of deputies adopted by referendum by introducing proportional representation. Already in 2017, he tried to convince Emmanuel Macron to organize such a referendum at the same time as the first round of legislative elections. An agreement within the executive couple would be entirely possible on the subject, although it would still have to be extended to a few other managers.
The choice to occupy the front of the stage, which appears almost existential to Emmanuel Macron, has a harmful consequence for the famous “stability” of which he made himself the guarantor last summer: it is the Prime Minister that it weakens, because the oppositions, when they overthrow the government, are in reality seeking to attack the president. On the usefulness of staying in one’s place…
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