Are we witnessing a decisive week for Ukraine? In an interview given to New York PostDonald Trump confirmed for the first time since his re -election had had a telephone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin concerning the future of the war in Ukraine. The American president assured that his Russian counterpart “wants people to stop dying”, affirming that the conflict “would never have taken place” if he had been at the head of the United States in 2022. Following This first officially confirmed call between the White House and the Kremlin since early 2022, Donald Trump said again to have a concrete plan to put an end to the war, saying “hoping that it is fast”.
This famous plan, which Trump repeats having since the start of the conflict without having ever detailed the contours, could however be supported this week. Because from February 14 to 16, the Munich security conference, a sort of “Davos de la Défense” and the biggest annual meeting in the diplomatic-military world. An event where Volodymyr Zelensky will go on the Ukrainian side.
But it is especially on the American side that we must look at the guest list, with a mass trip of the new Trump administration. There will thus be in Germany the vice-president JD Vance, a fervent criticism of American support for Ukraine and who must meet the Ukrainian head of state during the weekend. But also the Special Envoy of the United States for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, the Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth or the head of American diplomacy Marco Rubio, for the first official American visits to Europe since Donald’s arrival Trump in the White House. “We assume that discussions will take place on the sidelines of the event, the President of the Conference, Christoph Heusgen, told the press.
Rare coveted resources
If Donald Trump has so far never really developed his project to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine in the “next hundred days”, his goal in order to no longer have to finance the Ukrainian defense, a track seems to be emerging. Ukraine has something that sharpens Washington’s appetite: rare natural resources. Thus, according to the New York PostDonald Trump would like to conclude a $ 500 million agreement with Volodymyr Zelensky to access rare minerals such as lithium, uranium or titanium, as well as Ukrainian gas, in exchange for security guarantees as part of a possible peace agreement. True to himself, Donald Trump also threatens Russia for economic sanctions and customs rights to convince her to participate in negotiations – not necessarily the most worrying lever for Moscow, given the very small number of trade exchanges Between the two countries today.
Donald Trump’s project has a problem: most rare resources in Ukraine are in the east of the country, exactly where Russia continues to snack slowly day by day. This therefore makes it necessary for Washington to ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine in order to be able to exploit the riches of its soil. And therefore not to let Russia validate its territorial achievements during possible negotiations for a cease-fire.
Ukraine “ready to sign” an agreement with the United States
In any case, this American proposal seems to find a certain echo in Ukraine, which seems to be ready for these concessions from Washington in order to ensure its safety. A senior Ukrainian official told Washington Post That the Ukrainian administration was “ready to sign documents for an agreement” and that “the strategic interest of the United States for Ukraine is a key element of our security in the future”.
On the European side, however, the idea makes teeth cringe. The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that such a project would be “very selfish and self -centered”, ensuring that Ukraine will need its natural resources to rebuild the country after the war. But it is currently difficult to know the European Union will be able to weigh in any way in these possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The French, German, Polish, Italian, Spanish, British foreign ministers as well as the head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas must meet this Wednesday, February 12 in Paris in order to lead to a common position.
New elections in Ukraine?
The possible negotiations between Moscow and kyiv to achieve peace could also depend on a final, significant element: the holding of new presidential elections in Ukraine. So far postponed sine die Due to the martial law in force in the country, a ceasefire could be an opportunity to remedy this. Volodymyr Zelensky, at the head of Ukraine since May 2019, has already exceeded almost eight months the five -year term provided for by the Ukrainian Constitution, with conditions obviously making it impossible to hold new elections. According to Cnna calendar would already seem to be imagined on the American side: a cease-fire towards the end of April, a peace conference and a broader agreement in May, before elections in August.
The underlying idea behind this proposal, that of excluding Volodymyr Zelensky from power, seems to make its way on the side of Washington, while the relations between the Ukrainian president and Donald Trump are far from being as harmonious as those With his predecessor Joe Biden. But they could also and above all be a guarantee sent to Vladimir Putin and Russia, for whom the maintenance of Volodymyr Zelensky in power in the country would probably represent a red line. It remains to be seen whether Russia can partly define the Ukrainian electoral calendar. Especially when we know the capacity for interference that Moscow has shown in the last European polls.