This time, Donald Trump did not bluff. After the start of Israeli bombings in Iran on June 13, the American president had warned Tehran of a possible military intervention if the Mullah regime did not make a concession on the issue of his nuclear program. Saturday, June 21, the tenant of the White House put his threats. Three sites related to the atomic project of the Islamic Republic were struck by the US military. “Iran’s essential nuclear enrichment installations were fully and completely destroyed,” said Donald Trump after the operation.
However, a few weeks ago, such a scenario did not appear as the most likely option on the American side. True to its unpredictability, the republican billionaire alternates between successive procrastination and flip-flops on many international files: the war in Ukraine, customs duties, migrant crisis in the United States … But on the Iranian question, it has long seemed to favor the diplomatic solution. After initiating direct negotiations with Tehran, how did Donald Trump come to attack Iran?
The attempt of a “deal”
A man is the key to Donald Trump’s progressive vision of vision: Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu. Since the start of the second term of the American president, “Bibi” has operated a strong lobbying on the threat of the nuclear program in Iran. In a long story, the New York Times says that from his first visit to the White House in early February, the Israeli manager tried to alert his counterpart on the subject. He makes a detailed presentation of the risks linked to Iranian nuclear research, which could lead to the manufacture of an atomic weapon. Allegations always denied by Tehran, who claims to stick solely to a civil program.
Donald Trump does not intend to neglect certain military possibilities. For several months, its administration and the Pentagon will evoke different scenarios with Israeli forces to anticipate a possible military intervention. But it first promotes another path: the diplomatic solution. In early March, the tenant of the White House thus transmits a letter to the Iranian supreme guide, Ali Khamenei, to encourage him to negotiate a nuclear agreement. In the opposite case, Donald Trump threatens the regime of an armed attack. Ayatollah wreak response, which judges the director’s statements “reckless”.
Despite this pass of arms, talks between the United States and Iran are still organized from April. At this moment, Donald Trump considers himself capable of imposing his views in the region. The American president took advantage of Benyamin Netanyahu’s second visit to the White House to announce to the press the holding of these discussions. Dedused look of the Israeli Prime Minister, not informed of such an approach. After this episode, the relationships between the two men will truly begin to deteriorate. Donald Trump will even dissuade his Israeli partner from carrying out an immediate attack on Iran.
Tensions with Benyamin Netanyahu
However, within the Hebrew State, the various intelligence services and the army continue to activate to prepare a next military intervention against its sworn enemy. The Israeli power, Benyamin Netanyahu in mind, is determined to weaken Iran as much as possible. On the other side of the Atlantic, the dynamics are quite different. No question for Donald Trump to rush into a new warrior conflict when his negotiators, like his special envoy in the Middle East Steve Witkoff, report “significant progress” in discussions with Tehran. However, many obstacles remain before reaching an agreement. Iran still refuses to stop the enrichment of its uranium, as Washington claims in vain.
In May, during his tour in the Gulf, tensions between Trump and Netanyahu were at their height. The US leader takes care not to stop in Israel during his trip to the Middle East and prefers to sign juicy contracts with the petroomonarchies of the region. Coherent with the anti-interventionism of part of his base “Maga”, he repeats his desire not to engage in a new war. “As president, my priority is to put an end to conflicts, not to start them,” he insists. Israeli power is resolved to prepare for an Iran military attack at all costs, even without American support.
In Oman, Americans’ negotiations with the Iranian delegation do not advance. When finally, a proposal of agreement is transmitted to Ayatollah Khamenei at the end of May, he sweeps her back from the hand a few days later. For Donald Trump, the wait may have lasted too much. Despite a hectic phone call with Benyamin Netanyahu in the same period, the billionaire begins to conceive the hypothesis of an Israeli attack on Iran as inevitable. But he is always hesitant as to the role to take in the United States in this confrontation.
ATTOMENTS at the White House
Two meetings will then tip the balance on the Israeli side. The two scenes are told by journalists of New York Times. On June 8, a presentation of the situation in the Middle East was carried out for more than two hours by the director of the CIA, John Ratcliffe and the joint staff chief, General Dan Caine. The information signals are clear: Israel is about to trigger an attack on Iran. According to the New York daily newspaper, the imminence of the offensive then leads the American president to reach the Israeli Prime Minister by phone the next day. The plan of the operation is then detailed to him by the manager.
Donald Trump, impressed by the technicality of the Tsahal plan, would then have told his advisers: “I think we may have to help him”. But the latter is still plagued by doubts: is a diplomatic outcome with Iran really impossible? And above all, what about political repercussions on the inner scene of American support for Israeli strikes. Some Trumpist figures, such as the elected far-right in the House of Representatives Marjorie Taylor-Greene or the influential editorialist Tucker Carlson, do not hide their disapproval of such a measure. More generally, relatives – and sympathizers – of President Trump are shared on the issue.
The date of June 13 is coming. Israel attacks Iran, which replied by the launch of drones and missiles. Then begins a series of contradictory remarks from the American administration. At first, Washington takes care to pose a certain distance from the Israeli initiative. Donald Trump talks about strikes with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “He thinks, like me, that this war between Israel and Iran must end,” said the American president.
Ideological turnaround
But, little by little, the American billionaire leaves doubt about a possible American intervention in Iran. His rushed departure from the G7 on June 16, sows the trouble among its Western allies. “I have to come back as fast as possible,” said Donald Trump, while a defense council was planned in Washington the next day. The manager then added that his return to the American capital “had nothing to do” with “a cease-fire”. “It’s much bigger than that,” he said. In the days that follow, the deployment of American military devices in reinforcement in the region reinforces the impression of a renewed vision of the procedure to follow in the mind of the magnate.
Intervene in Iran? “Maybe I’m going to do it, maybe not,” said Donald Trump on June 18, three days before the American strikes start to the Fordo, Natanz and Ispahan sites. “No one knows what I’m going to do,” he said. “I like to make the final decision until the last second.” Conclusion of its ideological turnaround, the betting bet in Iran therefore constituted its final choice. What warm up once for all relations with its Israeli ally. “I would like to thank and congratulate Prime Minister ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu,” Donald Trump launched on Saturday evening when he spoke. “We worked as a team, as no team may have ever worked before.”