More than a hundred days have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For the first time in 80 years, a sovereign nation-state in Europe has been invaded, and this occupation leaves traces felt all over the world.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 was recorded as the largest-scale war in Europe since the Second World War.
The unexpected effects of this war, which was difficult for many to imagine, were felt globally.
influx of refugees
Since the Russian offensive, 6.8 million Ukrainians have left their country, with at least 7.7 million internally displaced.
According to the data of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 3 million people who fled to neighboring countries in the first place, then transferred to other countries. After Poland, the countries receiving the most Ukrainian asylum seekers are Germany with 727 thousand people and Czechia with 348 thousand people. It was recorded that about 2 million Ukrainians who fled the war returned to their country.
The arrival of Ukrainians in the European Union (EU) both mobilized great support and put their systems under strain. Asylum seekers who settle in a new country continue their lives depending on social safety nets, at least for a while.
food crisis
Ukraine is an important grain producer and producer of more than half of the world’s sunflower supply. Ukraine is responsible for 15 percent of the global corn supply and 10 percent of wheat trade, according to US Department of Agriculture data. After the start of the war, the export of grains has stalled after Russia blocked Ukraine’s access to Black Sea ports.
The blocking of exports most affected countries such as Egypt and India, which depended on Ukraine’s grain and sunflower oil imports. It continues to spread with the effect of waves.
Some experts warn that the war could cause a global food crisis, along with the harsh weather conditions caused by climate change and the economic crisis caused by the pandemic.
Last May, the United Nations Security Council warned that hunger rates had set a new record on a global scale, and said that tens of millions of people could face prolonged famine due to war. In May, 23 countries had stopped food exports, which is seen as an indicator of declining food security.
energy security
Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter. It is also the second largest exporter of crude oil and the third largest coal exporter. By the time the war started, three-quarters of its gas and almost half of its crude oil were exported to Europe. In 2020, Russian gas, oil and coal accounted for a quarter of the EU’s total energy consumption.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU began to look for ways to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. “We cannot trust a supplier that openly threatens us,” said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in March. In March, the Commission announced its intention for the EU to stop buying Russian fossil fuels by 2030, with two-thirds of gas from Russia by the end of this year. He had outlined his plans to cut it.
Increasing the gas stock and increasing the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as the USA are among the temporary measures. Others say gas shortages and rationing are possible. Many see this crisis as an opportunity for the EU to break its dependence on Russian energy and for the Union’s climate protection goals by increasing renewable energy and energy efficiency. . However, there are some limitations to how quickly these goals can be achieved. Increasing demand for non-Russian energy sources has also increased energy prices.
Price increases and inflation
Food and energy shortages have drastically changed the lives of many since the war began: Prices have gone up.
As the supply of something decreases, its value increases. As food and fuel became more expensive, other commodities also became more expensive. Food prices, in particular, are on the rise. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index (which measures monthly price changes for a basket of food products) saw the highest rates in March.
Inflation, that is, the decrease in purchasing power as prices increase, is one of the key criteria affecting every aspect of the economy.
According to the International Labor Organization, inflation has more than doubled since March 2021. Inflation in the European Region reached 8.1 percent last month, breaking a new record.
Inflation is expected to affect low-income countries more. While the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) inflation forecast is 5.7 percent for industrialized countries, it is 8.7 percent for developing countries.
NATO’s revival
Russia’s attack on Ukraine also left its traces in geopolitics. Some experts expect a new East and West geopolitical/economic bloc separation, with Russia and China in the East and the US and the EU in the West.
NATO was established in 1949 after the Second World War to bring together the USA, Canada and 10 EU countries. A product of the Cold War, the organization expanded to the east in 2004, while becoming an umbrella of democracy and free market for Europe.
Article 5 of NATO, which regulates collective defense, states that in case of an attack on a member state, it will mean that other member states are attacked as well, and military retaliation will be undertaken by all member states. After French President Emmanuel Macron said in 2019 that NATO was “brain dead”, the Ukraine war is said to have brought the organization, one of the world’s most powerful military alliances, back on the stage.
Due to fears of Putin’s imperialist project for Russia, Finland and Sweden have expressed their intention to join the alliance in recent weeks after 70 years of neutrality.
Putin sees NATO as a threat to Russia and has warned of what would happen if the alliance accepted Ukraine. Those who criticize the alliance say that the eastern expansion means provocation.
NATO provides weapons and equipment support to Ukraine. She continues her delicate dance. He stands firm but takes slow steps, avoiding triggering World War III.