How can the war in Ukraine end? Here are five options

The war in Ukraine has now continued for two weeks. The number of victims and the suffering is increasing day by day.

asked three Russian experts how the war could end or how it would continue if it dragged on.

The questions will be answered by a leading researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Blue Flower IslandMilitary Professor at the National Defense College Marko Palokangas and served as Finland’s ambassador to Moscow Hannu Himanen.

– This war was an opportunity written on the wall that we would not have wanted to believe in Russia for a long time, says Hannu Himanen.

Himanen attended President Putin’s inauguration in the Kremlin in 2012, when Putin’s third term began.

A short war would last from a few weeks to about two months. The war in Ukraine is currently experiencing a “search time,” says Palokangas, a military professor.

Sinikukka Saari, a leading researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, sees the most likely option as the end of hostilities in the coming weeks or months.

There may be several options for this – for example, that Russia will occupy Ukraine.

– Then probably the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi would be marginalized.

– Russia would try to hold “elections” in Ukraine, the result of which would presumably be very undemocratic, Russia’s role would be clearly strengthened and Ukraine’s puppet government would withdraw from European integration, Saari estimates.

However, he points out that a country the size of Ukraine cannot be occupied for a long time.

Despite Russia’s victory, the people could soon revolt in Ukraine and the situation would not remain under Russian control.

Marko Palokangas, a military professor at the National Defense College, states based on research on previous wars that the chances of ending the violence will be significantly reduced after the first 30 days of the war. So now we are living in a time of searching.

According to Palokangas, the duration of the war is affected above all by maintaining the combat capability of the armed forces of both countries. Western aid and financial support to Ukraine play an important role.

– The balance of power does not differ so much that the Russian armed forces have the capacity to occupy the whole of Ukraine militarily. Russia’s success in changing its administration and setting up a “puppet government” would be the fastest decision for Russia.

However, Palokangas believes that the momentum for Russia’s rapid victory and Ukraine’s surrender is probably already gone.

Himanen, who served as Finland’s ambassador to Russia, does not believe that the war could end soon.

According to Himanen, it would require finding a diplomatic solution or the collapse of Ukraine, which he does not consider likely to materialize.

– The rapid collapse of Ukraine seems very unlikely, as Ukraine’s defense is much stronger than expected.

Himanen believes that Ukraine has an “advantage”, even though Russia’s armed forces are much larger.

– It is easier to defend in a situation where the nation is united and fighting for its existence. That is a very important factor in this measure of strength, Himanen says.

If the war does not end in the first few months, experts say two nations will suffer. The humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine would worsen. The number of civilian casualties would increase significantly. From Russia’s point of view, sanctions would be tightened and the economy would become even tighter.

Hannu Himanen, who served as ambassador, believes that a protracted war would be the most likely option in the war in Ukraine.

– It means more human suffering, civilian casualties and refugees. It means the systematic destruction of Ukrainian cities, a kind of war of destruction like Grozny in Syria or Chechnya, Himanen says.

Military professor Marko Palokangas estimates that the war could turn into a guerrilla war if the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to defend themselves on a large scale were to collapse.

In that case, civilians across the country could take up arms.

– Guerrilla warfare is a completely different form of warfare. Really violent and brutal, the basic rules of war cannot be respected in any way. If civilians rise up in armed resistance, they will become a target for the attackers. They are then a party to the war in addition to the soldiers, Palokangas explains.

He warns that diplomacy would become much more difficult in the guerrilla war than in the current situation. Some guerrilla wars have lasted for decades.

Researcher Sinikukka Saari sees that as the war drags on, Ukraine could become more similar to Crimea since 2014.

Some areas would be more permanently controlled by Russia, some by Ukraine.

According to Saari, the losses to Russia could also lead to a protracted war. They would force it to resort more to private armies.

– Now that the West has begun to equip Ukraine, its defense capabilities may remain high and even strengthen, despite all the horrific losses. In this case, the war could be prolonged.

Experts believe the spread of war is unlikely right now, but it is possible. Himanen, who served as ambassador, estimates that the war could spread to Poland, for example, through which arms aid passes through Ukraine.

Russia has warned other states not to interfere in the war in Ukraine. In that case, Russia would consider the country intervening in the war to be a party to the war, experts say.

If that happened, the war could spread elsewhere.

Military professor Marko Palokangas does not see the spread of war as relevant right now. One reason for this is that much of Russia’s armed forces are currently tied to Ukraine.

– Of course, it has been considered possible for Russia to pursue this type of power goal with armed force elsewhere than in Ukraine.

– If Russia achieves its goals in Ukraine in the coming weeks or days, it may be possible to use military force elsewhere. If the war continues, the possibility of expansion will decrease, because Russia does not have unlimited military power, Palokangas estimates.

Blue Flower Saari said a major war could be at hand if Russia used a tactical nuclear weapon or a chemical weapon in Ukraine.

– Then the United States and possibly some other countries might say that now some border has been crossed and we have to act, Saari says.

However, according to him, such is not currently in sight.

Hannu Himanen estimates that one alternative to the expansion of the war could be for certain targets in Poland to be targeted by Russian missile strikes.

– In particular, those items that are logistically relevant for the provision of arms assistance to Ukraine. I can’t judge how likely this is, but I think it’s possible.

According to Himanen, the big question then would be how NATO would react to the situation. It has been trying for years and during the war not to provoke Russia.

It is difficult to get an accurate idea of ​​the feelings of the Russian people. But so far it seems that the majority of Russians support President Vladimir Putin.

Sinikukka Saari, a leading researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, says that at turning points in history, the situation may change quickly, but he does not consider a change of power in Russia likely at the moment.

– So far, it seems that the majority of Russians support this operation. Putin’s popularity has risen during the war. We do not yet know how Russia’s economic misery will affect whether the people turn against Putin or the West.

According to the Levada Research Center, Putin’s popularity rose by several percentage points to 71 percent just before the start of the war in Ukraine.

Military professor Marko Palokangas considers the so-called palace revolution more likely than a large Russian uprising.

He still finds the palace revolution very difficult to implement.

In Palokangas’ view, Putin’s isolation and the long negotiating tables seen in the pictures suggest that Putin wants to protect himself from a potential physical threat from insiders.

There are no indications that Putin is relinquishing power or suspending hostilities, Palokangas says.

– It is difficult to see Putin voluntarily relinquish power. He would lose his grip and face.

– It has been seen that an autonomous leader makes his decision through his own hand or relinquishes power voluntarily. But when you look at how Putin has built his portrait as a leader, it would seem strange for him to relinquish power.

Ambassador Himanen does not consider it very likely that there will be a change of power in Russia.

– From a Western and Finnish point of view, a somewhat positive scenario could be that there would be people around Putin who see the catastrophe of this war policy for Russia, would like to change it and would be able to carry out a change of power.

– However, the realization of such a possibility is behind many complexities and uncertainties. And it could just as well be said that a possible new regime after Putin could be at least as problematic for the West, if not worse.

A diplomatic solution is still possible but unlikely.

A diplomatic solution is still possible, but it is becoming less likely day by day, concludes Marko Palokangas.

That would require finding a solution that satisfies both parties.

– The way could be for Russia to make a big concession in its goals, for example, to leave the Zelensky regime alone. It could be a precondition for Russia to remain under Russian control.

– The management of other critical lands could also be a Russian proposal, which Ukraine and the Western community should agree to, Palokangas reflects.

He notes that it is no longer difficult for Putin to get out of the situation without losing face. The West has also imposed sanctions on Russia so harshly that it would be difficult for a military professor to abandon them abruptly.

Leading researcher Sinikukka Saari says that China could have an opportunity to put pressure on Russia to agree on some things that are not maximum goals from Russia.

– It is assumed that Russia wants more than in the situation from which it started. Stubborn Donbass is probably not enough now, but Russia wants to expand these areas as well as some kind of corridor for Crimea. The city of Mariupol, for example, would be within this area.

Himanen did not dare to believe in the emergence of a diplomatic solution as Russia’s ambassador.

– It is difficult to see what would be a diplomatic compromise that would satisfy Putin at the moment and what Ukraine could accept, Himanen says.