This is the advice of a wise old man. The kind that Michel Barnier likes to give to young elected officials, from the height of his fifty years of political life. “What counts is not the number of friends you make, but the number of enemies you do not make.” Avoid the wrath of some, before thinking about attracting the favor of others. The instruction is stamped with the seal of evidence. But is it useful to the new Prime Minister? It is permissible to doubt it, so much so that the old landmarks are flying apart in this fragmented National Assembly.
Who are Michel Barnier’s friends? Who wants his downfall? No one claims to take on the role of the bad guy, in the middle of forming the government. No, voters would not forgive such an act of irresponsibility! But the difficulties encountered by the Brexit negotiator in forming his team reveal the ambiguous game played by each. Behind the ally, the adversary is never far away. They also tell the story of a man. Sure of his authority over the central bloc by the grace of his nomination by Emmanuel Macron. Certain of his influence on the right, his lifelong family. “You won the jackpot by being nominated, now be careful not to form a minority government”, Bruno Le Maire warned him. Beware of certainties, they hide many rigidities. “You could be a Protestant, you!”, Gérard Larcher, the convert who knows about Huguenots and nevertheless knew how to remain flexible when necessary, once told him.
In a few days, the man who is presented as the one who compromises, the one who managed to convince parliaments across Europe to accept Brexit, has upset several pillars of the former majority. Gérald Darmanin did not necessarily appreciate being received late, only after Emmanuel Macron asked Michel Barnier if he had seen the Minister of the Interior. Sébastien Lecornu did not necessarily appreciate that the new head of government reminded him as soon as he met him that “the last time we saw each other, you were half an hour late”. Then, during a discussion, to have been told: “I have to admit that from time to time people say good things about you. But you are not present enough at meetings in Brussels”. And what about Stéphane Séjourné, who did not necessarily appreciate that the Prime Minister told him: “You know, I finally want competent ministers.” “Even Edouard Philippe, who supported Barnier so much, learned that Matignon was soliciting elected officials to join the government other than those he had put forward, and without keeping him informed,” says a resigning minister. He didn’t necessarily appreciate it either. So, some are rejoicing in circulating this judgment attributed to Nicolas Sarkozy: “If Barnier has never been appointed for thirty years, there must be a reason.”
“It’s blurry”
The Macronist bigwigs have egos. The little hands too. Shortly after his appointment, an old acquaintance warned Michel Barnier: “Don’t look for your problems on the left or in the RN. They are in Attal’s group.” These deputies do not seem very enthusiastic about the prospect of a forced marriage with the right, an unruly partner since 2022. They are also anxious that the scent of alternation does not squander Emmanuel Macron’s legacy. Convinced, finally, of their power despite their numbers; have some not renamed cohabitation “trihabitation”? They all have questions. This is bad timing, Michel Barnier has no answers. During interviews at Matignon with the leaders of the former majority, the Prime Minister remains silent on the policy he intends to pursue. “He is vague,” notes one interlocutor. The leader of the Modem deputies, Marc Fesneau, comes to meet him armed with a list of priorities, ranging from medical demography to the defense of public services. His host listens, but does not move forward much. The right is only entitled to positive remarks on its legislative pact. Immediately tempered. “I can’t promise to take everything,” he says to the LR deputies on the occasion of their back-to-school seminar.
Necessity is the law. The man cannot expose himself, at the risk of being subjected to artillery fire from his fragile coalition. LR has its red lines, the central bloc has its own. These sometimes diverge within a party. “If he made a general policy statement before the appointment of the government, he would shoot himself,” judges a minister. But still… How annoying it is to see these names of LR ministers circulating in the press.
And what about this hypothesis of a tax increase, revealed by the always well-intentioned Gérald Darmanin? You don’t upset a Macronist totem with impunity. “We want to give the product a chance, but we wonder what it wants to do. Here, we are told ‘Here is the captain, come aboard, we will tell you later where we are going'”, mocks a deputy, summarizing a fairly shared feeling.
Gabriel Attal senses this ersatz rebellion. He handles it skillfully. On September 18, he reported to his troops the (non) content of his exchanges with Michel Barnier and his silences on the political orientations of his government. That same evening, he wrote a letter to deplore the lack of “clear visibility on the political line” and on the “major government balances”. An EPR executive wonders: “Gabriel does not openly fan the flames, but when he comes to tell us that he has no guarantees on Barnier’s people or line, everyone hears implicitly that the Prime Minister despises us.” A showdown that seems to be bearing fruit. This Thursday, September 19, the meeting organized around Michel Barnier seems to have unblocked the situation.
Weak signals
One should never offend an ambitious person. Gabriel Attal did not appreciate the scathing remarks made by his successor during his handover speech. Just as he did not like having “no more sound, no more image” after his first meeting at Matignon. No more than he can stand this arrogance of a pillar of the Republican right, hardly impressed by this “new world” swept away in the ballot boxes. “He takes us for children,” he fumes in private. “We are witnessing two eras discovering each other,” smiles a close friend of the head of state. Barnier sees political morals that were not in force under Chirac.”
You should never upset a man who doesn’t want the best for you. Why on earth would Gabriel Attal go and support Michel Barnier tooth and nail? This LR figure embodies the promise of an alliance between the right and the centre, contrary to the promise of surpassing the Hauts-de-Seine MP. He wants to revive the “RPR State” – the words of François Bayrou, another supposed ally. He is abandoning Macronie, and would also like our anointing? Never! Shortly after the appointment of the Savoyard, a close friend of Gabriel Attal whispers to an LR elected official: “We’re going to f… with Barnier. If he doesn’t appoint the people we want to the ministries we want, we’ll say we’re not going.” A threat that the former Prime Minister duly utters during his second exchange with his replacement. “We’re thinking about it,” he said to Banier. “There’s going to be a group meeting, we might be in a logic of support without participation.” The Matignon tenant responded: “If you do that, you’ll explain to the president why I resigned.” Ultimately, Barnier quickly adapted to the ways of the new world. So, which of Gabriel Attal or Michel Barnier is telling the truth about this offer of a “major ministry” that the Prime Minister remembers making to his predecessor but that the latter claims never to have received?
Watch for weak signals. Close to Gabriel Attal, MP Prisca Thevenot recently castigated the behavior of an LR MP in the cultural affairs committee on an internal loop. “If they want this to work, it will be necessary for LR MPs (all) to learn to change software.” The art of fueling tension with a diplomatic veneer.
“It was brutal, I was brutal”
Officially, the right is holding back. LR spokespeople have been instructed not to overreact to the Attal offensive. “We are not going to start an internal war with people with whom we are potentially going to govern,” they assure Laurent Wauquiez. But it is also making its demands to Michel Barnier. At the parliamentary days in Annecy, the figure of 40% LR ministers is mentioned. Laurent Wauquiez is also greedy in his private exchanges with Gabriel Attal. He mentions with him the 132 LR senators to justify his camp’s claims. But it would be vulgar to play the nouveau riche. During a group meeting on Tuesday, Laurent Wauquiez called for finding a fair “balance”. “We must be represented on the subjects that are important to us with a proportional, but not excessive, weight.”
But Michel Barnier should not be mistaken: Wauquiez at Beauvau is not excessive! Internally, the former minister is pushing his pawns to take the Interior, even if it means entering into conflict with the head of government. Last week, an exchange with the Savoyard and a video conference with Bruno Retailleau turned sour. “It was brutal, I was brutal,” Michel Barnier would confide in private. Political friendship, a decidedly very subjective notion.
This is Michel Barnier’s playing field. Or rather the minefield. At least the Prime Minister has an ace up his sleeve. It is in no one’s interest for a detonation to explode too quickly. It would leave no survivors, as right-wing and central bloc voters want to give the former European Commissioner a chance. “The LR must appear responsible, and so must we. Attal cannot torpedo the machine,” admits a loyal supporter of the former Prime Minister. Thus, the latter sent a letter to his troops this Thursday calling for the “success of the Prime Minister.” “We will never be on the side of the blockade,” he wrote to the deputies of the presidential party. An opponent of Michel Barnier is already having fun: “Overthrow Barnier? Maybe not right away. Should we torture him first?”
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