(Finance) – “The robust increase in GDP forecast for the second quarter should bring the growth acquired at T2 in line, if not above the average annual forecast of the DEF (3.1%). second half of the year is more challengingalso due to the rise in interest rates and the spread, but the quarterly GDP growth is expected to remain slightly positive“. The treasure in the issuance program of government bonds for the third quarter of 2022, adding that “inflation is expected to decelerate in the second half of the year, while remaining high compared to previous years and vulnerable to new hikes in energy prices”.
It is seen as “still plausible” to reach or exceed the growth forecast of the DEF for the current year, despite the recent one correction in financial markets and widening of the spread “they could have negative effects on the confidence of households and businesses in the coming months, as well as on spending on durable goods through the wealth effect in the second half of the year “.
On the inflation front, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) states that “it is reasonable to imagine that if the trend towards stabilization or a fall in energy prices continues, headline inflation will slow down in the second half of the year“. At the same time it is admitted that the underlying component could remain “relatively high” also because wage growth is expected to start accelerating. It is recalled that Istat has published an inflation forecast net of imported energy of 4.7% for 2022, which will be the starting point for the adjustments envisaged by the wage contracts in force or by those being defined.
The surge in energy prices was also reflected in the worsening of the trade balance and the current account. “After years of high surpluses, in recent months the The current account balance, on the other hand, went into deficit although the performance of exports remained very good, as well as that of the non-energy balance “, it is emphasized. In 2021 Italy has for the first time overtaken France as a value of exports of goods (over 500 billion), becoming the third exporter of the EU after Germany and the Netherlands.