François Ruffin challenged in the Somme, Marine Le Pen unchallenged in his stronghold, a former head of state in reconquest and a former Prime Minister under threat… The first round of the legislative elections, Sunday, is full of hot spots across the France. The Express invites you to take a look at the hot spots two days before the election.
Hollande, the return
Cumbersome ally or assured rallies? The candidacy of François Hollande in his lands of Corrèze shook up the landscape of the New Popular Front, where many did not want it, particularly among the Insoumis.
But the former president, who has been trying to gain media clout for several weeks and publicly clashed with Jean-Luc Mélenchon during the campaign, no longer intended to “stay on (his) mountain of Tulle” and “watch the chaos”. Without “any score to settle” with Emmanuel Macron, he assures. The former tenant of the Elysée will try to retake the constituency from the right, but the outgoing LR Francis Dubois is also supported by the presidential camp.
Borne and ministers in danger
There are 24 in the running: many outgoing ministers are returning to battle, from Gabriel Attal to Stéphane Séjourné (Hauts-de-Seine) via Stanislas Guérini (Paris) or Agnès Pannier-Runacher (Pas-de-Calais). Several of them are threatened by the National Rally, like Marc Fesneau in Loir-et-Cher, or by the left like Thomas Cazenave in Bordeaux.
In the midst of a process of emancipation from the executive, Gérald Darmanin is playing part of his political future in Tourcoing against the RN, but he seems to be well on his way: an Ifop poll for Paris Match gave him more than 40% of voting intentions in the first round on Tuesday.
Another very hot spot, the 6th constituency of Calvados, that of the former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. A sanction vote to come? In this stronghold, the RN made a clear breakthrough in the European elections (34%) and the outgoing MP only came out with 52.5% ahead of a young rebellious candidate in 2022.
The fear is even greater in Paris for Clément Beaune, also a former minister and opposed to the socialist deputy mayor of the capital Emmanuel Grégoire. By 2022, it had only grown to a few hundred votes.
Le Pen elected in the first round?
The outcome of the legislative elections in Hénin-Beaumont is not in doubt, but there is a stake as of Sunday: will Marine Le Pen be elected in the first round? This seems highly probable. In her town in Pas-de-Calais, the three-time RN candidate for the Elysée had already exceeded 50% on the first Sunday of voting in 2022, but without counting the 25% of registered voters needed to be directly elected.
The expected high participation therefore risks being favorable to those who oppose a socialist replaced by… Marine Tondelier, patron of the Ecologists.
Wauquiez, master of his lands?
A possible candidate for the right for 2027, Laurent Wauquiez has chosen to relaunch himself on a national scale with a surprise candidacy in Puy-en-Velay, his city. But will he resist the fractures that are running through Les Républicains, disoriented by the alliance negotiated by their boss Eric Ciotti with the RN?
The president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region seems to hold his local base, but the torch party came close to 40% in his European constituency.
Ruffin, far from being won
40% for the RN, the situation is identical in the surroundings of Abbeville, in the Somme, where François Ruffin is putting his ambitions as “Prime Minister” into play, he who has clearly broken away from the rebellious leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the countryside.
The former journalist believes in a “miracle”, in particular by mobilising the abstentionist working class.
Insubordinate account settlements
The New Popular Front does not only clash with Macronie and the RN, it is also torn apart internally among the Insoumis, where four “rebellious” candidates were not invested by the leadership of LFI, but are supported by a part of both partner and dissident movements. In Paris, Danielle Simonnet, for example, faces a CGT trade unionist, Céline Verzeletti.
Another case to watch is that of the socialist Jérôme Guedj, who personally refuses the New Popular Front label in Essonne given his opposition to LFI. The Insoumis have invested his former substitute Hella Kribi-Romdhane, from Générations.
In Eure, an isolated socialist
In Eure, the rise of the RN is illustrated by a striking situation: a small socialist constituency caught in a vice by four RN territories. Soon to be five? Philippe Brun does not see it that way and will try to keep his seat. But he will have to work hard: in 2022, he had resisted the navy blue wave by only 350 votes.