Good news for employment and the European economy, bad news for the climate. Here is more or less the ambivalent feeling felt on reading the press release published Monday, June 19 by Airbus, on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show, announcing the signing of the largest contract in the history of civil aviation: 500 copies of its A320 model NEO will come to fill the fleet of the Indian low cost company Indigo – which already has 800 aircraft.
This order illustrates the recovery of the sector. Grounded during the pandemic, planes are experiencing a second youth. According to the latest forecasts from the International Air Transport Association, traffic should reach 4.54 billion passengers in 2023, close to the 2019 record. 2035 will emit 20% less CO2 than the previous ones. Admittedly, Airbus is preparing to recruit 10,000 people worldwide, including 3,500 in France alone – after having cut 10,000 positions at the end of the Covid. Admittedly, the aircraft manufacturer will make its 12,000 subcontractors work continuously.
An order out of step with the times
But at a time when calls for the decarbonization of the aviation sector are increasing, this contract seems out of step with the times. In Canada, several million hectares have burned in recent days, and firefighters are backing down from the power of the flames, for lack of sufficient resources. According to the European service Copernicus, the month of June is the hottest ever recorded in the world, raising fears of a suffocating summer again.
Some will argue that the airline sector is only responsible for 3% of global emissions. It’s true. But there is no reason to hope for a slowdown in the pace. Airbus and Boeing are already planning to double the total fleet of aircraft in the sky by 2040. As for the imminent arrival of a zero carbon model running on electricity or hydrogen, it remains uncertain. The paradox actually crosses all the aisles of the Paris Air Show, which after four years of absence, wanted to mark the occasion. The 2,453 exhibitors have understood this well: one day or another, we will have to go through decarbonization.
While it is to be welcomed that start-ups, SMEs and even large groups are working on the issue, by proposing breakthrough innovations, there is still a long way to go, as illustrated by the promising sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) which concentrates a good part of the expectations. It will still be necessary to produce it in time and in sufficient quantities to feed one of the most energy-intensive sectors on the planet. In 2022, the total production of this sustainable fuel was 250,000 tonnes worldwide… or less than 0.1% of the 300 million tonnes of kerosene consumed each year in the skies and on airport tarmacs. By 2050, it will take almost double. Airbus’ sensational announcement should not be the last. The event runs until Sunday and its historic rival Boeing has not said its last word.