Once passed the staggering effect caused by the Dantesque of Humiliation scene inflicted by Donald Trump on Volodymyr Zelensky on February 28-which gives a little idea about the form of what the Austrian chancellor Kurt von Schuschnigg had to undergo Hitler in 1938-The message now is perfectly understood: the United States abandoned Ukraine Russia, even though it is much more weakened than we believe economically and militarily. Unfortunately, there is no longer any possible doubt about this historical reversal of the global geopolitical axis.
Some commentators seek to rationalize the behavior of the American president and want to see an inverted approach to the Kissinger doctrine adopted in the 1970s: divide the Beijing-Moscow axis by approaching one of its poles. Unlike the last century, Washington would this time bet on Moscow in order to weaken Beijing. What an error in judgment! On the contrary, this American disengagement offers China an additional victory in a war where it never had to fight but of which it has exploited each phase to its advantage.
The huge risk taken by Washington
The first Chinese success is obvious: having succeeded in strengthening your grip on your Russian neighbor from the start of the war. Indeed, on February 4, 2022, a few days before the Russian invasion, Xi Jinping and Putin proclaimed their “limitless friendship”. Three years later, the war did not weaken their ties. On the contrary, she consolidated them. Economically, faced with Western sanctions, bilateral exchanges jumped $ 240 billion in 2023, an increase of 26.3 % in one year. China is now used as an intermediary to circumvent European restrictions and “the world factory” can thus rely on the largest global energy reservoir: a massively redirected Russian gas to China. Officially, it promotes “constructive neutrality” and does not deliver weapons to Russia. But everyone knows that it feeds their defense industry with “double use” goods that can serve both civilian and military industry.
And it is in this context that Donald Trump offers a new victory to China by shearing the transatlantic axis, a major matrix of the democratic world for a hundred and fifty years! Washington, under the leadership of a small group of theorists whose faces and revenge on the faces and remarks, completely disconnected from the realities of the world, promises a “regulation” of the conflict by bypassing its historical allies every day. One more rupture between Westerners after the threats of trade war and blackmail concerning NATO financing. We are just right, we mention the immense threat that hovers on peace in Europe. But we do not insist on the fact that the United States takes on an immense risk for itself: to push its own marginalized diplomaticly allies, economically weakened and commercially threatened in the arms of Xi Jinping.
The next few weeks could indeed mark a new Chinese victory. Because the suspension of military aid in Ukraine and the sharing of information by the United States makes it uncertain the continuation of the conflict. In such conditions, Volodymyr Zelensky has in reality no choice but to accept to negotiate. It is the end of a taboo: a great power can now seize territories by force. Beijing, who considers Taiwan as a rebellious province, is not about to forget the lesson. Now, under cover of a merger with Moscow supposed to weaken Beijing, Trump offers him on a set an unexpected previous. You have to stop imagining a fine calculation where there is only an ideological and simplistic reading of the state of the world: Trump made a monumental strategic error. Not only does he give breath to Russia, which will resume his expansionism once his strength found, but he mainly opens the way to a more powerful, more influential and more determined China than ever in front of the United States.
Jean-François Copé, former minister, is mayor (LR) of Meaux
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