Candidate for the first time in the legislative elections, Aurélien Rousseau came first in the 7th constituency of Yvelines but his election is not assured. What result expected for the former minister?
First successful round for Aurélien Rousseau. The former Minister of Health, who slammed the door of the government to join the left and its alliance of the New Popular Front, came first in the first round of the legislative elections in the 7th constituency of Yvelines. The former chief of staff of Elisabeth Borne when she was Prime Minister obtained 34.68% of the votes according to the Ministry of the Interior, ahead of his Macronist opponent Nadia Hai (29.32%) and Babette de Rozières, representing the LR-RN alliance (25.79%). It is therefore a three-way race that is emerging on Sunday July 7.
“This evening the voters of the 7th district of Yvelines placed me clearly in the lead thanks to a strong dynamic from the united left. However, nothing is decided, the RN obtaining an unprecedented score here. Sunday, let’s stand together and let’s build together in dialogue and respect”, tweeted Aurélien Rousseau following the results.
This election is a real challenge for the candidate. Born in Alès, Aurélien Rousseau grew up in Gard. He does not live in Yvelines and therefore has no direct link with the constituency in which he was nominated as a candidate by the NFP. It is also historically classified on the right and has not sent left-wing deputies since 1988. In the 2022 elections, Nadia Hai of Renaissance defeated the Nupes candidate, Michèle Christophoul.
What result for Aurélien Rousseau in the second round of the legislative elections?
However, for Aurélien Rousseau, a victory is far from assured. This three-way match promises to be very close. One vote in particular raises questions: that of the 7.64% collected by Julien Fréjabue, invested by the anti-Ciottistes LR. Will these voters move towards the presidential camp or towards the far right? The question remains unanswered and leaves uncertainty surrounding next Sunday’s result.
Furthermore, according to an Ipsos Toluna poll for France 2 which anticipates the number of seats by party and not by political union, the RN could obtain between 204 and 244 seats and their Ciottist allies between 26 and 36 seats, followed by the NFP which would obtain 180 to 200 seats, including 58 to 72 LFI, 33 to 43 PS, 28 to 38 EELV, 6 to 12 PCF. The presidential camp and its allies would come third with between 60 and 90 seats, including 53 to 71 Renaissance, 13 to 19 MoDem, 4 to 10 Horizons. The Republicans and various right-wingers can hope for between 41 and 61 seats. If these are trends observed at a specific moment, they seem to show that NFP and RN candidates are more likely to be elected than those of other parties.