The inflation figure for January was unexpectedly high, but excluding energy prices, the rate of price increase falls. And the weather is not something that affects the Riksbank’s plans to lower interest rates during the first half of this year, according to Spector.
“This does not change the big picture for the Riksbank,” says Spector, who still expects a first interest rate cut in May.
“This is a bump in the curve,” she describes today’s inflation statistics.
Statistics Sweden writes about the new figures:
“Housing costs increased in January and continue to be the largest contribution to the inflation rate according to the CPI,” says Mikael Nordin, price statistician at Statistics Norway, about the development.
At the same time, fuel prices fell radically, especially diesel prices, as a result of reduced reduction obligations.
And excluding energy prices, the inflationary pressure continued to decline as mentioned.
Underlying inflation – CPIF inflation excluding energy prices – fell to 4.4 percent, down from 5.3 percent. It was in line with the forecasts and slightly lower than the Riksbank’s latest forecast.
Fresh inflation figures from Statistics Norway. Archive image
However, the lift in CPI inflation was higher than expected. Analysts had on average expected CPI inflation – consumer price increases at an annual rate – of 5.0 percent in January, according to the Bloomberg news agency’s compilation of forecasts.
CPIF inflation – a measure of inflation that excludes interest rate changes – also rose to 3.3 percent in January, up from 2.3 percent in December. There, expectations were 3.1 percent.
The Riksbank’s inflation target aims for CPIF inflation of 2.0 percent.
According to Statistics Sweden, CPI inflation was reduced by 0.25 percentage points in January due to changes in the basket of goods Statistics Sweden uses to calculate inflation.