Hannu Juusola, professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Helsinki, considers the risk of escalation in the Middle East to be very high.
Topias Peltonen,
Petra Nykänen
1.10. 20:49•Updated 1.10. 21:49
The tense situation in the Middle East took another turn on Tuesday evening, when Iran launched hundreds of missiles towards Israel. Similar rocket attacks were last seen in April.
According to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, it is a retaliation against the Hamas leader to Ismail Haniyeha Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Abbas Nilforoushan of death.
Senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Timo R. Stewart assessed in Tuesday’s A-studio that Iran took a bigger risk with its missile attack than before.
– This is a more serious attack than in April, when Iran attacked Israel the last time. There were more songs in the air then, but most were drones. Ballistic missiles were now used.
Stewart predicts that Israel will not fail to respond to the attack.
– This is a very clear spiral of escalation, which goes to completely new levels.
According to Stewart, Iran probably doesn’t want a full-scale war, but the threat of it is there.
– The risk comes from whether Israel will agree to a limited strike the next time it responds to this, or whether we will go ahead again. Then we can conclude that we are in a full-on war.
Juusola: Iran is between wood and bark
Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Helsinki Hannu Juusola according to which the significance of the strike seen now and the series of possible future strikes depends on the kind of destruction they cause.
– What is very important now is whether the attack is one that can be countered relatively easily like in April.
According to Juusola, Iran feels humiliated after what happened in Lebanon. The Israeli Armed Forces said early Tuesday morning that it had begun a limited ground operation against the targets of the Iranian-backed extremist organization Hezbollah.
Iran has been between a rock and a hard place in terms of whether it should take revenge or think more about its other interests.
– Now it seems that, at least partially, Iran has turned in the direction that it is necessary to respond.
The destructive power of the strikes determines the counter strike
Israel responded to the April attacks with precision strikes, to which it showed that it could easily pierce Iran’s defenses. If there is now more destruction in Israel, Hannula believes that the counterattacks will target Iran’s infrastructure more widely.
– It can also target Iran’s nuclear program, which of course is a big threat for Iran, and naturally Iran’s military capacity.
According to Juusola, in the situation in the Middle East, the risk of escalation is now very high, but at the same time, it can be taken in many directions. Israeli operations in both Gaza and Lebanon are still ongoing.
However, Juusola believes that Israel will still be able to repel the attacks. It is the overwhelming military power in the Middle East with US support.
The story was completed at 21:38 with Timo R. Stewart’s comments.