The Total Defense Research Institute, FOI, has, in collaboration with Ukraine, launched the Glimt project, where ordinary Swedes can answer questions about events that can affect Ukraine.
It is about everything from a future meeting between Trump and Putin, if Russia will invade Georgia – to how long a ceasefire could be.
Ivar Ekman is an analyst at FOI and project manager for Glimt. He says that the purpose is to help Ukraine make strategic decisions about the future.
– This is a method that in research has proven to be a good way to get as precise assessments as possible about what will happen ahead. We offered the Ukrainians it and they were napping.
The answers are valued differently over time
The users are asked to think through their answers, but there is no requirement that you have expert expertise. However, the people whose forecasts are more dot -proof will be valued higher over time. The same applies to those who over time make incorrect forecasts.
– If someone systematically says something with a political agenda or wants something special to happen, they will over time be valued in how the algorithms weigh the answers together.
So the method grew
The method is called crowd forecasting (forecast for the crowd). The idea behind is that there is a wisdom in the mass, says Ivar Ekman. The method was developed by the United States and has been used, among other things, by the British intelligence service.
– It is not a straight average that is made between all assessments that come in, but you process it in different ways, says Ivar Ekman and continues:
– Out will be a figure that has so far proven to be the most precise way you have come up with to make judgments about the future.
Over 16,000 registered users
The goal is for Ukraine to take part in the forecasts of the future as part of a decision basis, which in turn can help the country defend itself against Russia’s warfare. It is also Ukraine who basically decides which questions should be answered.
Ivar Ekman says that a figure for how likely it is that something will happen, never used individually to make a strategic decision.
– When it comes to how this jackets in their decision -making process, this is something we have neither, nor want a particularly clear insight into. It is Ukraine’s thing to talk about.
So far, over 16,000 Swedes have registered on the site. The project is financed until the turn of the year following a previous decision by the Riksdag.