The interest rate peak has been reached
Does the Riksbank’s policy rate of 4 percent peak, or is more required to fight inflation? If nothing unforeseen happens, most things suggest that it will lead to a downward trend in mortgage rates next year. Many even envision interest rate cuts already in the spring.
In its new forecast, the Norwegian Economic Institute believes that inflation will fall clearly next year, and from this summer the Riksbank will begin a series of interest rate cuts
The big banks also believe in lower interest rates. SEB foresees three interest rate cuts in the next year. Nordea is also optimistic.
“The interest rate has peaked,” he says Anders Stenkronaprivate economist at Nordea.
This way you don’t have to wait for the tax refund: “More money in your pocket immediately”
From crisis policy to investments
It may also be time for the government to change focus now that inflation is falling back, I think Shoka Åhrman, savings economist at SPP. When inflation only rose, this was not possible, but now that things seem to have turned around, things may be in a different situation.
— That inflation goes down is important. It will be a shift, she says.
Some crisis measures will remain. The so-called additional allowance for families with children of up to SEK 2,100 a month will be extended until June next year, she notes.
Time to start saving
“When the economy becomes a little more predictable, households can get a chance to catch up,” says Anders Stenkrona.
It is possible to plan your own finances again, and you no longer have to just try to cope with all the crazy cost increases. It will make us both richer and more optimistic, he believes. And then we can start saving again.
Interest on the interest effect: This is how you make your money grow
— We have seen that savings have decreased by 60 percent in 2023. But now several surveys show optimism for the future, says Anders Stenkrona.
Photo: PexelsBostadsmarknaden
Lower mortgage rates can stabilize the housing market. Broker statistics, for example, believe that 2024 will mean that more deals will be made next year.
Others, such as SEB, believe in weak downward pressure on housing prices during the first half of 2024.
— But then it turns upwards. As interest rate cuts pick up speed, there will be a gradual recovery, says Americo Fernandezprivate economist at SEB.
The stock market pulls upwards
The market thinks ahead, and reacts to positive news about the future. The hope of lower interest rates has already sent the world’s stock markets soaring, but there may be more to come.
— The stock market is tricky, it can price in interest rate cuts already now. But it should react positively to interest rate cuts, says Américo Fernández.
Tax reductions
The government has announced several different types of tax cuts. For example, broad employment tax deductions and reduced tax for pensioners. In addition, the cohort of 1957 will receive compensation this summer for the missed tax credits that arose from a mistake.
The ceiling for the root and root deduction will be 75,000, and the taxes and reduction obligation on petrol and diesel will be lowered, points out Shoka Åhrman.
Pensioner? Here’s how to avoid withholding tax in 2024
Photo: Ali Lorestani/TTKronan strengthened?
The krona has begun to strengthen, and there may be hope that it will strengthen further. It means a lot to us, according to Américo Fernández. Much of what we buy is imported, this applies to both the food and other things, such as clothes and gadgets. With a stronger krona, our purchasing power increases, he states.
Electricity prices
Electricity does not look like it will be as horribly expensive as it has been in the last two winters. During the first quarter of 2024, the market now trades electricity at around 80 öre per kWh, compared to 90 öre for the same time this year and 2.70 kroner during the record-expensive December 2022, says Christian Holtzelectrical analyst at Merlin & Metis.
“This winter we will get significantly lower electricity prices, but not as low as they were in the early 20s,” he says.
The setback that can reduce your pension by SEK 30,000 – every year: “Expensive deal”