Does the gloomy weather of the last few days portend a rainy and cold fall season? The first long forecasts were established with a few key elements on All Saints’ Day.
As the end of summer is felt, with falling temperatures and gray weather over a large part of France at the end of the week, the first forecasts from French meteorologists concerning the fall have been delivered and some are definite .
Autumn is traditionally marked by a drop in temperatures after summer and greater rainfall, all accompanied by declining light. This is already palpable, particularly with the cold front which has been sweeping France since Thursday with heavy rain, accompanied by a drop of 8 to 10°C in temperatures compared to the previous days. The coolest day is precisely that of the transition to autumn, this Saturday, with 2.3°C below the norm indicates La Chaîne Météo.
What to expect humidity and cold for the future? The outlook is actually a little better for the end of September. The week of September 25 to October 1, temperatures should rise significantly, reaching 4 to 5°C above average. These will be between 20 and 25°C from north to south, or even higher in places.
For the last three months of the year the analyzes are cautious and the meteorologists point out that the models “can present scenarios that are sometimes quite different”. But according to the seasonal forecasts from Météo Consult, the month of October could be quite mild, as it is marked by a powerful anticyclone. It should bring us dry weather over a large part of France, and temperatures slightly above normal. A small downside for the inhabitants of Languedoc-Roussillon and PACA, the Mediterranean episodes could be intense and late this year, with the consequence of heavy rains.
Temperatures slightly above normal, ranging from +0.5 to +1°C, are therefore forecast for October, with beautiful autumn days, outside the Pyrenees and the Mediterranean rim, exposed to more sustained precipitation. According to Météo-Consult, this trend “is seen fairly unanimously by seasonal numerical models”.
Clearly, this fall of 2023 promises to be rather pleasant. And the month of November should be no exception to the rule. If disruptions are still possible, particularly mild temperatures for the season can be expected for the end of October and the beginning of November, with mercury higher than normal by around one degree on average. Météo France confirmed this prognosis by estimating at 70% the probability of seeing the mercury rise higher than seasonal norms. A fairly reliable indicator which should already encourage more than one to anticipate a big bridge for Halloween or All Saints’ Day, the November 1st public holiday falling on a Wednesday.
Are you finally wondering what the end of the year will bring? Get out your K-Ways! If the first models announce a rather mild start to winter, especially in the south of France, the weather will be more disrupted according to Météo-Consult which still sees these forecasts as good news for water tables and snow cover in mountain, less probably for our digestive walks at Christmas.