– These are calculations made by the very best we have and in that way we are expected to reach the goals by 2030, said Elisabeth Svantesson.
The government held a press conference to announce that it is raising the reduction obligation and lowering fuel taxes. The minister stated that this will reduce emissions by 2 million tonnes in 6 years, which will lead to Sweden meeting the EU’s climate goals. Something that is necessary for Sweden to avoid billions in fines.
But the government did not report any figures on how it was calculated, and when journalists asked for evidence, the answer was no.
The minister also rejected the opposition’s criticism that Sweden risks missing the EU’s climate goals.
– You have to choose whether to believe the Ministry of Finance’s officials or Daniel Helldén’s calculations. I choose to believe in the Ministry of Finance’s officials, Elisabeth Svantesson said then.
The scenario that disappeared
Now SVT can show that the Ministry of Finance’s calculations are based on the Environmental Protection Agency’s basis for the climate report. There are, however, two different scenarios: one where Sweden with the new increased reduction obligation just meets the EU’s target, and one where Sweden is still far from meeting the target.
– There are many uncertainties when developing scenarios, so we have developed two different ones. We assess that both are equally likely, says Sara Almqvist, head of unit at the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.
The more gloomy scenario, where Sweden misses the climate target despite the new reduction obligation, was not mentioned by the government at the press conference or in interviews, however.
Both scenarios equally likely
Both Svantesson and Pourmokhtari also called the more optimistic scenario where Sweden meets the climate goal the “main scenario” in interviews with SVT. But according to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, which produced the figures, there is no “main scenario”. Someone at the Government Office has invented that word.
– We don’t call it a “main scenario”. Both are equally likely, says Sara Almqvist.
When SVT meets the climate minister again on Thursday, she denies that she would have chosen a scenario, and says that she only received a “main scenario” presented to her.
– I have not sat with two scenarios and chosen the best. Our authorities have presented the scenario to the Government Office, then the Government Office has made its calculations and then we receive the calculations, says Pourmokhtari.