HEAT WAVE. Temperatures will gradually rise this week. It will be over 30 degrees over a large part of France and the mercury could even approach and then exceed 40 degrees in the South. Are we heading for the 2nd heat wave of 2022? Here are the forecasts near you.
[Mis à jour le 11 juillet 2022 à 06h35] The first week of the summer school holidays promises to be hot, very hot even over a large part of France. After several alerts followed by more reassuring models, the latest forecasts sound the alarm. A month after a first episode of heat wave in June, France will experience a new big heat wave.
But should we speak of a heat wave or a heat wave? If temperatures above normal for the season are expected and a heat wave is to be feared in the middle or end of the week, for the moment it is rather a heat wave. As a reminder, a heat wave is defined by temperatures that are 5 degrees higher than normal for the season, day and night, and this for at least 3 consecutive days and 3 nights.. The thresholds are therefore different for each city. What is the risk that you will be affected by a heat wave next week? What are the forecasts in Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux or Toulouse?
From 25C, we speak of a heat wave. In this context, and according to departmental thresholds, the #heat wave will be reached in certain regions, of which here is, to date, the risk. These forecasts are reliable until July 14, and much less reliable thereafter. pic.twitter.com/FJPFN1YRZ7
— The Weather Channel (@lachainemeteo) July 8, 2022
What is the weather forecast for this week in France?
The week will be summer in France with temperatures that will rise crescendo. This Monday, July 11, the expected maximum will be in the Occitanie region with 35 degrees expected in Castres or Cahors, but the mercury will quickly climb over the week. Tuesday, we expect 37 degrees in Alès then the heat will spread to the rest of France with 34 degrees in Bordeaux and Nantes then 35 degrees in Lyon on Thursday. In the northern half, the next weekend of July 16 and 17 promises to be very hot with 37 degrees expected in Paris on Sunday as in Rennes or Strasbourg. Adopt the right gestures from the first heat, and follow the recommendations.
The mercury will gradually rise, and you will be hot in the days to come in Paris and Ile-de-France. Here is the forecast from Meteo France:
- Monday July 11: morning: 21 degrees / afternoon: 29 degrees / night: 21 degrees
- Tuesday July 12: 20 degrees / afternoon: 31 degrees / night: 24 degrees
- Wednesday July 13: 23 degrees / afternoon: 34 degrees / night: 23 degrees
- Weekend: the mercury will rise gradually with 29 degrees at its hottest expected on Thursday and Friday before a sudden rise with 33 degrees on Saturday and 37 degrees on Sunday.
Heat wave: what is the weather forecast for Lyon?
- Monday July 11: morning: 22 degrees / afternoon: 30 degrees / night: 22 degrees
- Tuesday July 12: 22 degrees / afternoon: 32 degrees / night: 22 degrees
- Wednesday July 13: 21 degrees / afternoon: 33 degrees / night: 23 degrees
- Weekend: 35 degrees expected Thursday, 34 Friday, 36 Saturday and 38 maximum Sunday July 17.
Heat wave: what is the weather forecast for Bordeaux?
- Monday July 11: morning: 23 degrees / afternoon: 34 degrees / night: 24 degrees
- Tuesday July 12: 24 degrees / afternoon: 34 degrees / night: 24 degrees
- Wednesday July 13: 24 degrees / afternoon: 33 degrees / night: 24 degrees
- Weekend: 34 degrees expected Thursday, 35 Friday, 38 Saturday and 37 maximum Sunday July 17.
Heat wave: what is the weather forecast for Toulouse?
- Monday July 11: morning: 24 degrees / afternoon: 34 degrees / night: 25 degrees
- Tuesday July 12: 23 degrees / afternoon: 35 degrees / night: 24 degrees
- Wednesday July 13: 22 degrees / afternoon: 36 degrees / night: 25 degrees
- Weekend: 35 degrees expected Thursday, 36 Friday, 38 Saturday and 37 maximum Sunday July 17.
Heat wave, heat peak, heat wave and heat dome: what are the differences?
Heat wave and heat wave are two different things. To speak of a heat wave, temperatures must be 5 degrees higher than normal for the season, day and night, and this for at least 3 days and 3 nights. The heat wave temperature threshold therefore differs according to the departments and regions. Heat waves most often occur in France in July and August. We must be vigilant from the month of June. High temperatures, even above seasonal norms, do not necessarily mean a heat wave. most often these are heat waves.
The term heat peak is more to be used during a sudden rise in temperature, whereas a heat wave corresponds to a longer episode. Météo France judges that a heat wave is in progress when temperatures above the monthly average are detected by more than three degrees Celsius, for at least three days.
Last term often mentioned these days when talking about these scorching temperatures, that of a heat dome. A heat dome settled over almost the entire country this May 2022. This meteorological phenomenon is explained by a large mass of hot air from Morocco and Spain, trapped by atmospheric pressure. This usually occurs in summer, but also in spring. This results in scorching heat.
You should know that Météo-France provides several levels of heat wave vigilance: level 1 (green) corresponds to a “seasonal watch”, level 2 (yellow) to a “heat warning” and it is level 3 (orange) which corresponds to the “heat wave alert”. Finally level 4 (red), the highest, determines “maximum mobilization”. In summer, it is not uncommon for several departments to be placed on orange or red alert for the heat wave.
Heat wave 2022: after the June heat wave, a very hot summer in sight?
Does the hot weather from May with a first heat wave and then the heat wave in mid-June predict a very hot summer in 2022 with heat waves? After periods of strong, even very strong heat, which have become more and more frequent between June and September in recent years in France, the summer of 2021 has served as an exception. The heat peak extended throughout the territory in mid-June, represented the only heat wave of the year and then gave way to a rather gloomy summer, the coolest and wettest since 2014. Climate variations, year year after year make weather forecasts difficult, but can we expect a warmer year in 2022 and the risk of a heat wave? Here is what La Chaîne Météo forecasters predict for the months of July and August:
- July 2022: this month should be similar to June with rather high temperatures and quite a few thunderstorms. A heat wave is expected the week of July 11 to 17, expect scorching temperatures.
- August 2022: beware, the weather should be more humid, but still with higher temperatures of +0.5° to +1°C compared to seasonal norms.
Heat wave: what are the temperature records recorded in recent years?
If the heat wave of the summer of 2003 remains in everyone’s memory (and that of 1976 also among the old), France has since experienced other episodes of very hot weather. The summer of 2019 had broken several records with absolute temperature records reached in several cities. According to data from Météo-France, 50 cities had thus recorded a new record since July 25, 2019. While the summer of 2019 had been very hot, some records were broken during this heat wave in mid-June 2022.
A look back at the first heat wave of summer 2022 and the heat wave day of Saturday June 18, 2022: 150 municipalities broke a heat record according to meteorologist Patrick Marlière, interviewed by BFM TV: “We went from 70 cities with monthly records beaten, more than 150 today in France, from the Pyrenees to the Belgian border”. The city of Nantes thus broke its record for the month of June with 39.1°C. In the South-West, records at more than 40 degrees have been reached: Biarritz with 42.9°, Saint-Jean-de-Luz with 42° or Bordeaux with 40°.
In July 2019, the second wave of heat wave hit France and it was mainly the cities in the west, north and east of France that saw their records shattered. For example, Météo-France has recorded the following records:
- 45.8 degrees were recorded in Gallargues-le-Montueux
- In Montpellier, the thermometer showed 42.5 degrees, 5 degrees higher than its former absolute record
- The thermometer showed 44.3 degrees in Carpentras
- 42.6 degrees in Paris
- 41.5 degrees in Lille
- 41.2 degrees in Bordeaux
- 41.3 degrees in Dunkirk
- 41 degrees in Angers
- 40.1 degrees in Reims
- 38.9 degrees in Strasbourg