Heat wave: towards the hottest day ever recorded in France

After a relative drop in temperatures in the north between Thursday and Saturday, a new surge in the mercury will occur between Sunday and Tuesday throughout France. Going up towards Brittany, the cold drop responsible for the arrival ofair hot on the country will propel this heat burning in the north of France. The hot air comes directly from Spain and Portugal, countries where several heat records have been broken. This Thursday, July 14, a temperature of 47 ° C was recorded in Pinhão in Portugal, the highest temperature recorded in July in Portugal, if it is officially confirmed.

Up to 40°C or more in Paris and Brittany

Despite strong heat in the southwest during the week, no really extreme values ​​were reached: the situation will change on Monday and Tuesday, two days marked by a extreme heat spike this time. 35°C will be exceeded in almost the entire country, and 40°C in many cities unaccustomed to such conditions. The symbolic temperature of 40°C will probably be reached or exceeded in Paris, Nantes, Albi, Montauban, Bergerac, La Roche-sur-Yon, Les Sables-d’Olonne, Avignon, or even Montélimar. Even more exceptional, the interior of the Brittany could experience temperatures of 40 to 41°C, especially in Morbihan. The peak will occur more exactly in the west on Monday, with 40 to 42 ° C expected from Aquitaine to Brittany, and in the north and east on Tuesday, with 38 to 41 ° C.

A heat wave on the way to being historic

Nationally, Monday will probably be the hottest day ever recorded in France: the thermal indicator will reach or perhaps exceed the previous record of August 5, 2003 and July 25, 2019: 29.4°C. This is the average of morning and afternoon temperatures over a day calculated from 30 stations weather report reference. This vague heat of July 2022 will ultimately last at least 14 days and therefore approach the duration of the heat wave of August 2003, which had lasted 16 days.

However, it should be noted that after the heat peak on Monday and Tuesday, no net cooling is expected. With the rise of the cold drop towards the Channel and the British Isles, temperatures will drop 10°C in Brittany between Tuesday and Wednesday. But they will still often stay above 30°C in the north and 35°C in the south for the rest of the week. The Rhône Valley will remain below values ​​of 38 to 40°C all week. This July 2022 heat wave will in any case be one of the longest ever recorded in France, in addition to being one of the most intense.

Heatwave: a new “blowtorch” exactly one month after the early heat wave

Article of Karine Durandpublished on July 12, 2022

The risk of a heat wave is becoming increasingly clear for the next 10 days: the heat will be intense and long-lasting. If the weather situation is confirmed, this heat wave could be historic.

After the early and intense heat wave in mid-June 2022, France will undergo a new exceptional “blowtorch” exactly one month later. For a few days, the weather forecast models play yo-yo: if the heat wave was considered as exceptional and lasting over the whole country, of the same type as that of 2003, during the releases of weather models this Sunday, the new forecasts of this Monday morning have again changed the game at the regional level. The risk of a lasting heat wave is increasingly confirmed for the south of the country, but not necessarily for the northern half. This Monday, the forecasts are moving towards a peak of intensity on Wednesday, with locally 37 ° C in the north, on the side of Nantes in particular which is in the line of sight of theadvection warm air from the southwest. Elsewhere in France, Meteo France predicts 36°C in Paris, 35°C in Strasbourg and 39°C in the south. The two nights from Tuesday to Wednesday and from Wednesday to Thursday will be stifling, before a relative cooling Thursday and Friday in the north, with more breathable nights. The parade on July 14 will therefore be very hot, but not exceptional in Paris, but still just as suffocating in the south. Lows over the British Isles send cooler air Thursday and Friday, but warm air will also move over the British Isles over the weekend.

Burning air over all of France from Sunday

The weekend of July 16-17 will be marked by a new worrying intensification: the cold drop located over Spain and Portugal, which is bringing warm air up in its rotation, should rise towards Brittany. In this case, it will propel scorching Spanish air over the northern half from Sunday. From Sunday, it is not impossible that 40°C will be reached in the north on Sunday and Monday. Monday could be marked by widespread extreme heat across the country. According Francois Jobardforecaster at Météo France, “ having an event as strong as the 2003 heat wave is a possibility that cannot be ruled out, in terms of intensity, and perhaps in terms of duration if the event persists for a fortnight. Reliable forecasts do not go beyond 8 days, so it will be necessary to monitor the evolution. The position of the cold drop sending hot air is responsible for the uncertainties”. In any case, the very high heat will continue for at least ten days in the south, and if this situation persists, the month of July 2022 may be historic in terms of heat and drought. As the forecaster of Météo France points out: “ temperatures may drop on Tuesday July 19, but temperatures will still stay above 30°C almost everywhere, so there is no real cooling in sight”.

To believe the DTN medium-term forecast throughout the month of July, the heat is not about to leave France: average temperatures in France should be 3 to 9°C higher than normal for the season until the end of the month.

The new heat wave arriving in France will be longer

Article by Karine Durand, published on July 8, 2022

The heat wave envisaged for next week is confirmed and should be longer than expected, with temperatures above 30°C over a large part of mainland France. No rain in sight.

France will once again experience widespread heatwaves during the first week of the long summer holidays. If it is not possible to speak of a heat wave given the forecasts for this Friday (which are subject to change), it is certain that the temperatures will exceed the seasonal averages by at least 5°C for a week, or even more. A depression centered over Portugal will bring warm air up for several days over Western Europe. According Sebastien Leasforecaster at Météo France, “ the question is whether it will be very hot, or very very hot! »

The heat may indeed be less intense than expected a few days ago, but more durable: at least a week, even two weeks, and without a drop of rain for at least 10 days. The heat stroke will begin in the Pyrenees Orientales this weekend, before invading the west and north-west on Tuesday, then the rest of France on Wednesday. These widespread high temperatures will last until at least Sunday July 17, or even perhaps the entire following week. The official heat wave thresholds will not be reached a priori because the night temperatures should remain bearable.

At this time, Météo France still forecasts 32 to 36°C in the northern half and 35 to 38°C in the southern half. Unlike the mid-June heat wave, it is not certain that an extreme heat peak will be reached during a day, but rather a lasting, sunny and dry hot plateau. Parisian parade on Thursday July 14th will undoubtedly take place in very high temperatures and many fireworks will certainly be canceled in the evening due to the high risk of fires.

It is confirmed: France will experience a new episode of heat wave next week

Article by Karine Durand, published on 6/07/2022

The first week of the long summer holidays will probably be marked by the return of very hot weather: is there a risk of a new heat wave like that of last June? Update on the weather forecast.

While the last quarter (April-May-June) was the hottest observed in France since 1900, with an average temperature of 16.9°C, the heat seems to be continuing for the start of summer. The weather context envisaged, without certainty, for next week, recalls for the moment that of the heat wave from June 15 to 19 : a depression centered on Spain will bring warm air up towards France. If this is confirmed, it is not impossible that the heat wave thresholds will again be reached in the southwest, with temperatures exceeding 40°C during the day and tropical nights for several days in a row.

Strong heat in the south for sure

However, the reliability of weather forecasts is very limited one week before. It is certain that the country will experience hot weather and even very hot in the south. The possibility of a heat wave seems to be confirmed more and more, but it is far too early to envisage a heat wave as intense as that of last June. Temperatures will rise significantly from Monday in the southwest, then the heat should reach the northwest on Tuesday with possibly more than 30°C, even 35°C, and the rest of the northern half should be affected between Wednesday and Thursday July 14th. From Friday, the situation is too far away to be reliable: either the heat will continue to rise and spread eastward, or the temperatures will start to drop again.