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After several weeks of overheating in the seas and on three continents, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European observatory Copernicus believe that they have enough data to announce that July 2023 will “most certainly be the hottest month ever. measured”, surpassing the previous record of July 2019.
The event is probably “unprecedented” over thousands of years and is only a “taste” of the planet’s climatic future, believe the two reference institutions.
Greece partly ravaged by the flames as well as Canada, which was also the victim of terrible floods, crushing heat in southern Europe, North Africa, the southern United States and part of China, which has also just suffered the ravages of Typhoon Doksuri: the visible signs of human-caused global warming are appearing simultaneously.
Even if other regions are experiencing a mild, even cool summer in northern Europe, scientists are adamant: “It is extremely likely that July will be the hottest July on record” and even “the hottest all months combined”, announced the WMO and Copernicus, confirming its forecasts as July draws to a close.
After an already record month of June, the first three weeks of July are already the three hottest ever measured. And the temperature anomaly measured by Copernicus, whose complete data dates back to 1940, is such that it is not necessary to wait until the end of the month to confirm the record.
Beyond the fine precision of modern measurements, paleoclimatological data, from tree rings and ice cores, suggest that these current temperatures are certainly “unprecedented in our history over the last thousands years,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Service (C3S).
And even “over a much longer period, probably around 100,000 years,” he added at a press conference.
Heatwaves, heat waves… “Silent killer” events
According to Carlo Buontempo, “it is unlikely that the July record will remain isolated this year” given the seasonal forecasts of C3S and the predicted rise in power of the cyclical climatic phenomenon El Niño over the Pacific, synonymous with global warming.
Despite three successive years of the opposite phenomenon, La Niña, which partly masked the effects of global warming, the years 2015-2022 were the warmest ever measured.
And all eyes are now on the 2016 annual record, which could be beaten as early as 2023 or 2024.
The observations, however, are consistent with repeated forecasts by climatologists. On Tuesday, the scientific network World Weather Attribution (WWA) concluded that the occurrence of recent heat waves in Europe and the United States would have been “virtually impossible” without the effect of human-made greenhouse gas emissions.
“The weather extremes experienced by millions of people in July are just the harsh reality of climate change and a taste of what the future holds,” warns WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas. “Climate action is not a luxury but a necessity”.
It is not “just about adapting” but about “recognizing that this is the most serious crisis our civilization has ever had to face”, abounds David King, former British envoy for the climate. , now chairman of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.
While the global climate is now around about 1.2°C of warming, some are trying to draw up emergency measures to hope not to exceed the 1.5°C mark recommended by the Paris agreement.
Among other measures, “we should reduce the production of fossil fuels each year by around 6% to achieve an overall reduction in our use of 40% by 2030”, said Catherine Abreu of the NGO Destination Zero, during a a press briefing on Wednesday.
These successive records, “these are not just numbers”, underlined at his side the British climatologist Friederike Otto, of the WWA. Events, such as heat waves, are first and foremost “silent killers”.
The summer of 2022, already record in terms of heat in Europe, caused an excess mortality of 60,000 people in this region of the world.
Slide: Heat wave, high heat… What are the risks for our body?