Heat wave 2022: risk of a heat wave next week? Forecasts in Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux

HEAT WAVE. The summer of 2022 is expected to be very hot. After a first heat wave in June, a new heat wave will hit France next week. Temperatures are expected to gradually rise to up to 40 degrees locally by the weekend. What are the risks of a heat wave near you? The forecast for the days to come..

[Mis à jour le 8 juillet 2022 à 11h33] After a summer month of June, an early heat wave and broken temperature records, the month of July is also set to be very hot with a first wave of extreme heat from next week and scorching temperatures from the middle of next week. . The whole territory will be affected by this episode of strong heat, the mercury will greatly exceed 30 degrees over a large part of France and temperatures may rise to 40 degrees in the South. No one should be spared.

But can we therefore speak of a heat wave? For the moment no, no heat wave alert has been issued by Météo France. It is normal to have temperatures around 30 degrees in July, especially in the south of France. It is necessary to wait for the forecasts to be refined over the days. As a reminder, a heat wave is defined by temperatures 5 degrees higher than normal for the season, day and night, and this for at least 3 consecutive days and 3 nights.. The thresholds are therefore different for each city. What is the risk that you will be affected by a heat wave next week?

What is the weather forecast for the weekend and next week in France?

The weekend will be summer in France with seasonal temperatures expected. The 30 degrees will be approached in a large southern part of the country, and even exceeded in the South-East with 33 degrees in Montpellier and 34 degrees in Perpignan on Saturday afternoon according to the forecasts of Meteo France. In the northern half, temperatures will be between 25 and 30 degrees with 27 degrees expected in Paris, Auxerre or Reims, 29 degrees in Rennes, Tours or Nantes, still according to Météo France.

For next week, the Weather Channel gives the first trends with a possible risk of a heat wave. Here is the forecast map:

Adopt the right gestures from the first heat, and follow the recommendations.

Heat wave: what is the weather forecast for Paris?

The mercury will gradually rise, and you will be hot in the days to come in Paris and Ile-de-France. Here is the forecast from Meteo France:

• Saturday July 9, 2022: morning: 20 degrees / afternoon: 27 degrees (with possible peaks at 29 degrees) / night: 18 degrees
• Sunday July 10, 2022: morning: 16 degrees / afternoon: 26 degrees / night: 19 degrees
• Week from Monday July 11 to Sunday July 17, 2022: the mercury will gradually rise with 30 degrees at its hottest expected on Monday, 32 degrees on Tuesday, then between 34 and 36 degrees the rest of the week, and up to 37 degrees on Sunday July 17 .

Heat wave: what is the weather forecast for Lyon?

• Saturday July 9, 2022: morning: 21 degrees / afternoon: 29 degrees / night: 22 degrees
• Sunday July 10, 2022: morning: 21 degrees / afternoon: 28 degrees / night: 21 degrees
• Week from Monday July 11 to Sunday July 17, 2022: the week will be hot in Lyon with 30 degrees already exceeded at the start of the week. 31 degrees are forecast by Météo France on Monday, 32 degrees on Tuesday, 35 on Wednesday, 37 on Thursday and Friday, 39 on Saturday, to reach 40 degrees on Sunday.

Heat wave: what is the weather forecast for Bordeaux?

• Saturday July 9, 2022: morning: 21 degrees / afternoon: 30 degrees / night: 22 degrees
• Sunday July 10, 2022: morning: 20 degrees / afternoon: 30 degrees / night: 22 degrees
• Week from Monday July 11 to Sunday July 17, 2022: it will already be 34 degrees on Monday at the hottest of the day according to Météo France forecasters, and the mercury will continue to climb with 25 degrees on Tuesday, 37 degrees on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, 39 degrees Saturday and 35 degrees Sunday.

Heat wave: what is the weather forecast for Toulouse?

• Saturday July 9, 2022: morning: 21 degrees / afternoon: 30 degrees / night: 22 degrees
• Sunday July 10, 2022: morning: 19 degrees / afternoon: 31 degrees / night: 21 degrees
• Week of Monday July 11 to Sunday July 17, 2022: the mercury will be well above 30 degrees next week with 35 degrees expected at the hottest of the day from Monday, 36 Tuesday, 37 Wednesday, 38 Thursday and Friday, 39 Saturday and 37 Sunday .

Heat wave, heat peak, heat wave and heat dome: what are the differences?

heat wave and heat wave are two different things. To speak of a heat wave, temperatures must be 5 degrees higher than normal for the season, day and night, and this for at least 3 days and 3 nights. The heat wave temperature threshold therefore differs according to the departments and regions. Heat waves most often occur in France in July and August. We must be vigilant from the month of June. High temperatures, even above seasonal norms, do not necessarily mean a heat wave. most often these are heat waves.
The term heat peak is more to be used during a sudden rise in temperature, whereas a heat wave corresponds to a longer episode. Météo France judges that a heat wave is in progress when temperatures above the monthly average are detected by more than three degrees Celsius, for at least three days.
Last term often mentioned these days when talking about these scorching temperatures, that of a heat dome. A heat dome settled over almost the entire country this May 2022. This meteorological phenomenon is explained by a large mass of hot air from Morocco and Spain, trapped by atmospheric pressure. This usually occurs in summer, but also in spring. This results in scorching heat.
You should know that Météo-France provides several levels of heat wave vigilance: level 1 (green) corresponds to a “seasonal watch”, level 2 (yellow) to a “heat warning” and it is level 3 (orange) which corresponds to the “heat wave alert”. Finally level 4 (red), the highest, determines “maximum mobilization”. In summer, it is not uncommon for several departments to be placed on orange or red alert for the heat wave.

Heat wave 2022: after this June heat wave, a very hot summer in sight?

Does this hot weather from May with a first heat wave and then the heat wave in mid-June predict a very hot summer in 2022 with heat waves? After periods of strong, even very strong heat, which have become more and more frequent between June and September in recent years in France, the summer of 2021 has served as an exception. The heat peak extended throughout the territory in mid-June, represented the only heat wave of the year and then gave way to a rather gloomy summer, the coolest and wettest since 2014. Climate variations, year year after year make weather forecasts difficult, but can we expect a warmer year in 2022 and the risk of a heat wave? Here is what La Chaîne Météo forecasters predict for the months of June, July and August:

• June 2022: this is the month that is likely to be the hottest in the summer in France, with high temperatures and thunderstorms expected. The first half of the month confirmed forecasts with the first heat wave of the summer season.
• July 2022: this month should be similar to June with rather high temperatures and quite a few thunderstorms. A heat wave is expected the week of July 11 to 17, expect scorching temperatures.
• August 2022: beware, the weather should be more humid, but still with higher temperatures of +0.5° to +1°C compared to seasonal norms.

Heat wave: what are the temperature records recorded in recent years?

If the heat wave of the summer of 2003 remains in everyone’s memory (and that of 1976 also among the old), France has since experienced other episodes of very hot weather. The summer of 2019 had broken several records with absolute temperature records reached in several cities. According to data from Météo-France, 50 cities had thus recorded a new record since July 25, 2019. While the summer of 2019 had been very hot, some records were broken during this heat wave in mid-June 2022.

A look back at the first heat wave of summer 2022 and the heat wave day of Saturday June 18, 2022: 150 towns broke a heat record according to meteorologist Patrick Marlière, interviewed by BFM TV: “We went from 70 towns with monthly records beaten, more than 150 today in France, from the Pyrenees to the Belgian border”. The city of Nantes thus broke its record for the month of June with 39.1°C. In the South-West, records at more than 40 degrees have been reached: Biarritz with 42.9°, Saint-Jean-de-Luz with 42° or Bordeaux with 40°.

In July 2019, the second wave of heat wave hit France and it was mainly the cities in the west, north and east of France that saw their records shattered. For example, Météo-France has recorded the following records:

• 45.8 degrees were recorded in Gallargues-le-Montueux
• In Montpellier, the thermometer showed 42.5 degrees, 5 degrees higher than its former absolute record
• The thermometer showed 44.3 degrees in Carpentras
• 42.6 degrees in Paris
• 41.5 degrees in Lille
• 41.2 degrees in Bordeaux
• 41.3 degrees in Dunkirk
• 41 degrees in Angers
• 40.1 degrees in Reims
• 38.9 degrees in Strasbourg