In Europe, the inhabited continent with the coolest temperatures on the globe, cold kills more than heat. But a reversal could be observed in the coming years. This is what a study published this Wednesday, August 21, by the British scientific journal Tea Lancet.
“Much more heat-related deaths are expected as the climate warms and populations age, while cold-related deaths decline slightly,” said David García-León of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, and co-author of the study.
450,000 deaths linked to extreme temperatures in 2100
So, while heat-related deaths in Europe are around 43,700 per year today, they could reach almost 129,000 if temperatures rise by 3°C in 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. That is a three-fold increase by the end of the century. The annual death toll from cold and heat in Europe would therefore rise from 407,000 today to 450,000 in 2100. This is even if the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is met.
“This research is a stark reminder of how many lives we are putting at risk if we don’t act fast enough on climate change,” said Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at health research charity Wellcome, who was not involved in the study. Especially since that figure doesn’t take into account “indirect” heat-related deaths.
The “indirect” consequences of global warming
The study highlights, for example, the harmful effects of heat on physical and mental health, particularly among older people. In the event of a 1.5°C warming by the end of the century, people over 85 would account for more than three-quarters of heat-related deaths.
Furthermore, “we have already seen how extreme heat events can cause crop failures, devastating wildfires, damage critical infrastructure and impact the economy – all of which impact our lives,” Thomson said.
Significant regional disparities
To obtain an estimate of deaths due to high and low temperatures across the continent, the researchers modeled data from 854 cities. Verdict: while no region of the Old Continent is spared, southern countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain will unsurprisingly be the most heavily affected by the consequences of rising temperatures. As will many French departments, mainly located in the southern part of France.
THE Lancet estimates that “deaths should be six times more frequent in the South than in the North”. The authors noted in particular that the risk of mortality linked to heat was mainly due to temperatures “more intense in the South”, mainly during the summer. In contrast to deaths linked to cold, the evolution of which is only partly explained by cooler winters.
Researchers’ recommendations
In order to anticipate the alarming projections highlighted by the study, the researchers have formulated several recommendations for public authorities in European countries: increased investment in hospitals, creation of action plans and even systematization of building insulation.
Furthermore, since the increase in deaths in the coming years would be due to the combined effects of the ageing of the population in Europe and global warming, “it is essential to tackle the root of the problem by reducing greenhouse gas emissions”, insisted environmental epidemiologist at ISGlobal Elisa Gallo, speaking to our colleagues at Guardian.
The countries that will have to make the greatest effort in terms of transformation will be the countries of the South. The same countries, which must at the same time face higher unemployment and poverty rates, and ageing populations whose vulnerability to climate change risks increasing sharply.