He will become US president in 2024 – according to 80,000 simulations

He will become US president in 2024 according to

November 5th is the day when American citizens go to the polls.

About 244 million people in the United States are eligible to vote, and before election day a whopping 23 million of them had voted early, which was a record.

The election, which stands between the Democrats’ Kamala Harris and the Republicans Donald Trumppredicted to be the tightest election ever.

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The 2024 US presidential election: He has simulated the winner

The American statistics guru Nate Silver has, with the background that there is no clear winner in advance, carried out a whopping 80,000 simulations.

The purpose of the simulations is to point to who is predicted to win the election. Of the 80,000 simulations Silver has carried out, one thing speaks for itself: it is awfully even.

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Statistician Nate Silver has simulated the winner of the 2024 US presidential election. Photo: Nam Y. Huh/TT

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She wins the presidential election in the USA in 2024 – according to 80,000 simulations

On the night of Tuesday, November 5, he went through the results which showed that Kamala Harris was the winner in 40,012 of the cases, which corresponds to a 50.0015 percent chance of victory.

Donald Trump won in 39,988 of the simulations, which equates to a 49.985 percent chance of victory, states The evening paper.

Just as it has been in recent days, the outcome is therefore difficult to guess. Harris has a marginally greater chance of victory, but Nate Silver states that it is more or less impossible to say who will actually win the US presidential election in 2024. He sees the calculation as “probable” rather than a fact.

– I don’t really know what to say about this, says Nate Silver according to Aftonbladet.

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Photo: Paul Sancya & Susan Walsh/TT

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All 46 presidents of the United States – through time

  • George Washington: 1789-1797
  • John Adams: 1797-1801
  • Thomas Jefferson: 1801-1809
  • James Madison: 1809-1817
  • James Monroe: 1817-1828
  • John Quincy Adams: 1825-1829
  • Andrew Jackson: 1829-1837
  • Martin Van Buren: 1837-1841
  • William Henry Harrison: 1841-1841
  • John Tyler: 1841-1845
  • James K. Polk: 1845-1849
  • Zachary Taylor: 1849-1850
  • Millard Fillmore: 1850-1853
  • Franklin Pierce: 1853-1857
  • James Buchanan: 1857-1861
  • Abraham Lincoln: 1861-1865
  • Andrew Johnson: 1865-1869
  • Ulysses S. Grant: 1869-1877
  • Rutherford B. Hayes: 1877-1881
  • James Abram Garfield: 1881-1881
  • Chester Alan Arthur: 1881-1885
  • Grover Cleveland: 1885-1889
  • Benjamin Harrison: 1889-1893
  • Grover Cleveland: 1893-1897
  • William McKinley: 1897-1901
  • Theodore Roosevelt: 1901-1909
  • William Howard Taft: 1909-1913
  • Woodrow Wilson: 1913-1921
  • Warren G. Harding: 1921-1923
  • Calvin Coolidge: 1923-1929
  • Herbert Hoover: 1929-1933
  • Franklin D. Roosevelt: 1933-1945
  • Harry S. Truman: 1945-1953
  • Dwight D. Eisenhower: 1953-1961
  • John F. Kennedy: 1961-1963
  • Lyndon B. Johnson: 1963-1969
  • Richard Nixon: 1969-1974
  • Gerald Ford: 1974-1977
  • Jimmy Carter: 1977-1981
  • Ronald Reagan: 1981-1989
  • George HW Bush: 1989-1993
  • Bill Clinton: 1993-2001
  • George W. Bush: 2001-2009
  • Barack Obama: 2009-2017
  • Donald Trump: 2017-2021
  • Joe Biden: 2021-
  • nh2-general