“He can’t just be the candidate of reasonable people” – L’Express

A break, but what break? It is urgent to wait. The word is “much too Sarkozyst”, specifies one of Edouard Philippe’s friends. And then, as those close to him usually say, “Edouard is not an heir”! He himself made it known, one evening in May on the LCI channel: the President of the Republic had certainly chosen him as Prime Minister; he will “always be grateful” to him. But he began his political life before Emmanuel Macron, and does not owe him the start of his elected career, nor his re-election as mayor of Le Havre.

This would explain this little dissonant voice during the European campaign. He who considered a debate between Marine Le Pen and the Head of State “surprising” – a debate whose idea had been launched by the latter. He who greatly preferred, at the heart of the New Caledonian crisis, an agreement between loyalists and separatists on the reform of the electoral body rather than the convening of a congress, brandished by Emmanuel Macron as a threat. The ex-Prime Minister’s detractors see the outline of a way out of the woods? His supporters promise it, after June 9. Missed. He will remain master for a long time, he wants to believe. No clocks yet.

“Philippe is independence in interdependence”

But Edouard Philippe has a nightmare: on July 7, the mayor of Le Havre becomes the great collateral victim of the defeat of the central bloc; his Horizons parliamentary group, which had 29 deputies before the dissolution, is weakened… No! Counteract the bad omen. Distance yourself in spurts.

A first act of emancipation, in the Official Journal, Tuesday June 12: the party of the former Prime Minister extricates itself from the common banner “Together” which brought together Renaissance, Modem and Horizons in the last legislative elections of 2022. Public funding will, after the elections, be directly transferred to the political party.

“It is not a bad word to say that, in a party which aims to present a candidate in 2027, it is necessary to ensure its financing over the long term,” assures Thomas Mesnier, spokesperson for Horizons. Leaflets and posters in the colors of the Philippe formation, and the portrait of their champion. Emmanuel Macron disappears. We reassure Edouard Philippe’s supporters, who were worried about the lack of organization of the process.

Second act: its flock renegotiates upwards the terms of the 2022 coalition. Tense discussions, but Horizons obtains “a little more than 80 constituencies” – the party “does not wish to communicate on the figures”, against 58 at the time . Almost as much as Modem, which will run for 85 – 16 fewer than in 2022. “The party is no longer the same as it was at the time. A good number of elected officials have joined our ranks, mayors, in particular, It’s normal that we put it forward in our negotiations,” explains a training executive.

“Everyone is responsible for what they do. The moment does not lend itself to this kind of calculation, nor to hoping to take space, that seems quite obvious to me,” breathes Marc Fesneau, negotiator for the Bayrouists. “The moment lent itself more to being centrific than centripedal,” marvels the historical Macronist François Patriat. “I have the impression that they are going it alone.” Hervé Marseille, senator and president of the UDI, puts things into perspective: “The wind is blowing too hard. Philippe, it’s independence in interdependence.”

Edouard Philippe knows these fine margins which remain between the real, the possible and the desirable; three years, one month and eighteen days at Matignon are worth a cure for lucidity for him. But for the boss of Horizons, a claimed presidential candidate, the inheritance above all offers its share of constraints. Reality has changed. Emmanuel Macron, by rushing political time, forced Philippe to review his calendar. What is desirable is then a hive of contradictory injunctions: to brush aside some caution, as some of his supporters tell him, even if it means appearing as a divider? Politics, the art of the possible.

“He can’t just be the candidate of reasonable people”

Possible, however, for its opponents in the central bloc to cultivate their singularity. Some people are not shy about speaking up for themselves. Talk to François Bayrou about it: “A unifier is missing,” he recently told Figaro. In my place, I will be on the side of the unifiers […]. At home, when there is a storm, lightning strikes the highest point.”

Listen to Bruno Le Maire, on France Inter: “What I see is that she [NDLR : la dissolution] has created concern, incomprehension, and sometimes anger in our country. I am here to tell them: there is hope.” Please imagine which one. Edouard Philippe, for his part, claims to move from a “presidential majority” to a “parliamentary majority” – going from the conservative right to the left social democrat, “less connoted like the majority of the president”, explains one of his supporters. Please understand.

“It is not in the eyes of the president that he makes his decision: there is no point in overplaying the obvious, one of his close associates wants to believe. The time has come to listen to the French, to build a project.” Any doubts in Philippia? “His statement on the coalition of the social democratic left and the conservative right is déjà vu. It’s dangerous,” worries a Horizons parliamentarian. The fine nuance of the coalition, rather than poaching, does not always convince.

“He cannot just be the candidate of reasonable people, he must give hope. If he cannot find the words, he will not be elected President of the Republic,” analyzes one of his regular interlocutors. Thirty-six months to smell the spirit of the times. Some of his supporters thought they had smelled him. A seat for Edouard Philippe in a bustling Palais Bourbon for the next three years? The person concerned declines. In the cauldron probably, his potential rivals: Gabriel Attal, or Gérald Darmanin. Time will tell which promontory offers the clearest view of the Elysée.