According to John Helin, an expert following the war, Ukraine’s main attack direction could be in the Zaporizhia region.
Ukraine has been attacking since last night near the city of Orhiv in the direction of Zaporizhia.
Numerous Russian war bloggers and the Russian Minister of Defense talk about it Sergei Shoigu. The Russian sources are not reliable, but there is footage to support the claims.
The pictures show German Leopard 2 main battle tanks in combat for the first time. Photos of the tanks were published by a Russian war blog Zaporžki Front.
The wagons have been confirmed as Leopards and positioned at the front, says an expert following the war from open sources John Helin.
– The appearance of leopards suggests that this could be Ukraine’s main attack direction, estimates Helin Yelle, who updates the war situation map.
The extent of the attack is unclear
Ukraine is likely to save valuable Western armor only for its most important attacks. So it could be the beginning of the main attack.
According to Helin, however, the matter cannot be said for sure yet.
Other Western equipment believed to be part of the main attack, such as Challenger tanks or Bradley fighting vehicles, have not yet been seen in the area.
There is no reliable information about the extent of the attack either. It is unclear whether this is a very aggressive probing of Ukraine or an actual attack.
The Ukrainian operation group in charge of the Zaporizhzhia front has denied for the Washington Post, that there would be actions bigger than “small counterattack actions” going on. However, Ukraine has already made it clear that it will not announce the start of a counterattack separately.
Heading towards Melitopol?
Ukraine is attacking in an area that has been previously assessed as one of the most likely directions for the main attack. A road leads from the Orhiv region towards the town of Melitopol on the shores of the Sea of Azov.
If Ukraine were to reach Melitopol, it would split the Russian-occupied territory in half. At the same time, the maintenance of the Crimean peninsula would only depend on sea transport and the bridge in Kerts, which has already been bombed once.
Russia has built strong fortresses along the road.
Strong fortresses still ahead
According to Helin, based on the current information, it seems that Ukraine has captured Russia’s first defense positions in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.
Strongly fortified main stations are still ahead, however.
For now, the information of Helin and others who follow the war is based on the claims and pictures of Russian war bloggers. Ukraine has maintained strict radio silence about its operations.
Although bloggers are very unreliable sources, according to Helin, information about the actual course of the war can also be deduced from their claims.
Helin says he is waiting for fresh satellite images of the area. They tell more impartially about the situation at the front.
Ukraine has also progressed in the east
In recent days, Ukraine has also advanced several kilometers in the area of Velyka Novosilka, located east of Orhiv. These events have already been confirmed by satellite images.
Confirmed sightings of French AMX-10RC armored reconnaissance vehicles have been made in this area. However, heavy western equipment has not been seen.
According to Helin, the information about the attacks in Ukraine in the last few days indicates that Ukraine’s long-awaited counterattack has begun.